***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 6.0 6.3 4.8 0.6 57.5 56.6 3.9 5.6 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 5.7 5.9 4.7 0.5 57.1 56.2 3.6 5.2 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.7 4.9 0.5 56.5 55.7 4.5 6.1 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 0.3 0.5 2.7 0.6 57.5 56.6 -1.5 -0.1 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 6.5 6.4 3.1 0.3 53.9 53.5 4.5 6.0 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.5 2.0 0.2 53.1 52.9 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 5.2 5.5 4.6 0.5 57.6 56.6 3.1 4.8 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -1.3 -1.9 2.0 -0.3 45.8 46.7 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 6.9 6.8 3.9 0.2 53.1 52.8 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 6.7 6.1 2.8 -0.1 48.3 48.8 4.8 6.3 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 6.8 6.5 3.0 0.2 52.3 52.1 4.8 6.3 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.0 2.6 -0.1 49.0 49.4 4.7 6.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.2 2.4 0.0 49.8 50.2 4.8 6.2 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 7.2 6.7 4.0 0.0 50.2 50.3 5.0 6.7 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 5.9 6.5 3.4 0.9 62.3 60.7 3.9 5.4 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.1 6.9 2.7 0.2 53.4 53.1 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.3 4.4 0.4 55.5 54.7 3.4 4.8 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.9 5.1 2.4 -0.3 45.3 46.3 4.1 5.4 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 5.8 6.0 4.9 0.5 56.7 55.8 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.8 1.6 0.3 -0.7 39.6 41.5 1.1 2.4 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.7 6.7 4.4 0.4 55.0 54.5 4.8 6.3 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 5.9 5.9 4.6 0.4 55.1 54.3 3.8 5.5 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.1 4.9 0.4 55.3 54.6 3.9 5.6 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 7.0 6.6 3.8 0.0 50.2 50.4 5.1 6.6 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.6 3.3 0.4 55.4 54.8 3.7 5.1 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.2 5.8 2.1 -0.1 48.4 49.0 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 6.0 6.1 4.1 0.5 56.3 55.6 4.0 5.6 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 6.7 7.1 3.1 0.7 59.4 58.2 4.6 6.2 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.9 1.9 1.5 -0.5 42.9 44.3 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 5.5 5.8 4.8 0.6 57.8 56.8 3.5 5.1 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------