***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 10.8 13.3 17.3 158.4 79.6 75.3 2.7 5.1 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 9.2 11.5 15.2 167.8 81.1 77.4 2.1 4.1 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 14.2 17.5 17.3 156.8 79.3 75.1 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 14.3 17.1 19.6 147.6 77.4 72.4 4.5 7.9 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 16.6 20.5 21.4 155.5 79.6 74.6 4.6 8.5 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 15.1 18.6 20.0 157.4 80.1 74.8 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 9.9 12.6 15.2 170.0 81.7 78.0 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 22.6 29.9 25.3 177.2 83.9 79.1 6.9 11.6 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 13.6 17.7 22.0 166.9 82.4 77.2 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 16.1 20.9 23.6 167.6 82.5 77.6 4.4 7.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 13.9 17.0 20.7 157.4 80.0 75.0 4.2 7.2 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 13.5 17.8 22.2 171.6 82.8 78.0 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 16.1 21.6 21.4 161.4 81.3 76.8 3.6 7.4 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 17.5 21.4 19.7 156.1 79.5 75.6 5.0 8.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 10.4 11.9 16.9 133.9 73.8 69.1 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 14.2 17.6 20.5 156.8 79.8 75.1 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 9.9 12.6 15.2 178.5 82.6 79.0 2.4 4.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 15.5 19.8 25.6 173.5 83.9 79.3 4.8 7.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 9.9 12.3 15.8 163.8 80.5 76.7 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 14.5 21.5 34.7 197.7 87.6 82.9 3.9 7.0 11.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 14.3 18.2 20.2 165.5 81.5 76.9 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 10.8 14.3 16.1 175.9 82.4 78.7 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 9.9 12.4 16.7 156.2 79.2 75.5 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 16.7 20.4 21.1 161.1 80.8 76.4 4.9 8.5 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 15.0 17.6 20.3 150.1 78.0 73.6 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 14.7 19.3 23.5 176.5 83.9 80.0 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 11.9 14.1 18.7 154.5 78.9 74.8 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 11.1 13.2 17.6 138.7 75.1 69.7 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 22.1 29.9 28.5 182.6 85.4 81.1 6.1 10.7 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 9.7 11.8 15.7 162.8 80.3 76.6 2.5 4.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------