***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.9 8.8 11.4 106.9 66.0 55.6 2.3 5.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 11.5 11.4 12.1 123.9 71.1 58.3 2.2 5.1 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 13.4 12.1 108.2 66.1 55.7 3.5 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.5 16.3 13.2 110.6 67.2 56.4 5.3 9.6 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.2 15.6 13.5 109.4 66.3 56.2 4.6 9.1 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.6 11.0 12.3 94.9 61.4 53.9 5.0 8.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.2 8.8 11.5 119.5 69.8 57.1 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.6 21.0 15.1 107.5 65.5 55.4 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.3 13.9 109.0 66.0 56.3 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.8 17.3 15.2 108.3 65.6 56.0 5.5 10.5 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.6 12.8 12.7 103.9 64.2 54.7 4.0 8.0 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.8 12.6 12.5 102.2 63.6 54.1 4.1 8.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.5 12.9 12.1 96.0 61.6 53.7 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.1 16.2 15.6 108.2 65.8 56.3 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.1 12.5 106.8 66.5 54.4 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.1 10.6 11.6 97.1 62.2 53.7 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.1 10.0 12.2 131.7 73.2 59.3 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 13.4 17.1 107.5 65.0 55.4 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.5 12.6 122.6 70.6 58.4 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.9 20.7 110.5 66.4 55.3 4.6 8.5 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.8 13.5 12.8 107.7 65.9 56.0 3.7 7.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.4 11.7 13.5 135.5 74.2 60.4 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.5 10.3 13.2 116.7 68.8 57.7 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.7 13.9 14.8 105.3 64.7 55.3 4.4 8.5 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.7 15.7 13.5 112.3 67.7 57.1 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.7 11.9 93.4 61.3 52.9 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.3 12.2 12.6 110.4 67.1 56.6 3.3 6.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.7 13.7 12.3 104.0 65.4 54.8 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.4 23.1 18.9 109.4 65.8 55.6 10.1 15.9 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.9 10.9 11.8 117.7 69.2 57.1 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------