***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.1 8.1 86.2 57.7 45.5 3.7 6.5 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.1 6.1 7.7 90.2 60.2 45.7 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.0 8.5 93.6 60.8 46.8 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.5 10.4 9.9 98.2 62.5 49.5 4.8 7.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.8 10.9 9.6 96.0 61.0 49.6 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.2 9.0 10.9 109.4 65.7 54.3 3.6 6.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.9 5.4 7.6 86.1 58.7 45.8 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.2 18.8 10.5 99.8 62.4 52.5 10.0 14.7 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.3 9.7 93.8 59.9 49.1 3.0 6.0 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.9 10.4 10.5 96.8 60.9 50.8 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.6 9.4 102.7 63.4 51.9 3.5 6.4 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.4 11.3 9.4 105.1 64.6 53.4 4.3 7.5 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.7 12.1 10.3 108.0 65.5 54.5 4.8 8.0 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.6 11.9 11.1 103.1 63.9 48.9 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.0 10.4 106.7 66.4 50.6 2.3 4.8 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.7 9.6 106.1 64.8 52.7 4.0 6.7 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.9 7.2 88.7 59.3 44.9 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.4 11.8 97.4 60.9 50.4 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.3 6.8 7.9 93.5 61.0 45.5 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 14.7 13.6 96.2 61.1 52.3 6.0 10.7 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.3 8.9 91.3 59.0 47.5 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.1 7.6 90.0 59.1 43.9 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.2 8.6 98.6 62.5 46.3 2.7 4.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.1 11.9 10.7 100.0 62.3 49.0 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.9 9.5 88.8 58.2 47.1 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.7 9.9 105.8 64.6 53.1 4.0 6.6 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.3 8.8 84.5 56.6 45.5 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.9 10.0 104.3 65.0 50.5 2.6 5.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.8 19.6 12.4 95.3 60.5 50.7 8.3 14.5 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.7 7.8 89.5 59.8 45.6 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------