***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 -1.7 -1.8 0.5 58.2 59.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.5 -2.3 0.3 54.4 57.0 -4.2 -2.9 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 0.0 -0.4 -2.5 0.1 51.4 55.1 -1.6 -0.4 0.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -5.7 -6.6 -5.7 -0.3 45.0 48.8 -7.5 -6.2 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 -2.6 -3.1 -5.0 -0.1 47.9 51.8 -4.1 -3.0 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -2.7 -2.9 -5.4 1.2 66.9 64.8 -4.9 -3.9 -2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -1.9 -2.0 0.5 58.8 60.3 -3.9 -2.6 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 -7.1 -7.1 -4.7 1.5 69.6 68.0 -9.4 -8.4 -7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 -1.7 -2.1 -4.1 0.0 50.4 54.1 -3.2 -2.1 -1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 -1.3 -1.7 -4.7 0.9 61.8 62.2 -3.3 -2.3 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -2.4 -4.8 0.3 53.8 56.3 -3.7 -2.7 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 -2.4 -2.7 -4.2 1.2 66.4 65.7 -4.6 -3.6 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 -1.6 -1.7 -4.2 1.4 70.3 68.1 -4.1 -3.0 -2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 -1.4 -1.5 -3.8 0.3 54.2 55.9 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -2.6 -5.1 -0.4 45.0 48.3 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 -0.9 -1.7 -5.0 0.5 56.7 58.2 -3.0 -2.1 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -2.6 -2.4 0.1 52.2 55.3 -4.0 -2.7 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 -3.4 -3.4 -5.0 1.4 67.5 65.9 -5.4 -4.4 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -2.6 -2.5 0.1 51.7 55.1 -4.0 -2.7 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 -6.1 -5.7 -5.7 2.0 76.8 73.0 -8.8 -7.7 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -2.0 -2.5 -3.2 -0.1 48.8 53.1 -3.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 -2.5 -3.1 -2.7 -0.2 47.2 51.6 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -2.8 -2.8 0.0 50.3 54.0 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -2.2 -3.8 0.6 57.5 58.8 -3.7 -2.7 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -2.3 -3.8 0.4 55.6 57.1 -3.7 -2.7 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 -1.6 -1.3 -3.4 1.9 76.5 72.9 -3.9 -2.9 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 -1.1 -1.6 -2.5 0.7 61.5 61.8 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -3.1 -4.0 -5.5 -0.5 43.5 47.6 -4.6 -3.6 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 -3.7 -3.5 -5.2 1.7 72.9 69.8 -6.2 -5.1 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1 0.4 56.3 58.4 -3.7 -2.4 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------