***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.3 1.8 -1.5 33.5 35.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.0 1.4 1.2 -2.0 28.6 30.7 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 1.4 1.8 1.2 -2.4 26.1 28.7 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 -4.2 -5.1 -3.1 -4.1 14.4 18.2 -2.6 -0.8 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 1.4 1.3 -0.8 -2.9 22.4 26.0 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.1 1.1 0.1 51.1 51.9 2.2 4.0 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.4 2.0 1.9 -1.1 36.8 38.1 1.5 3.5 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -2.2 0.9 -0.6 44.0 44.8 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.0 2.1 0.5 -2.6 25.0 28.2 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.7 3.4 0.8 -1.5 35.8 37.7 3.1 5.0 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.4 2.6 0.0 -2.2 28.9 32.0 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.3 1.2 -0.7 43.4 44.4 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 5.4 5.8 2.7 0.7 58.2 57.2 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.9 1.2 -2.2 29.5 31.6 3.4 5.7 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 0.9 0.0 -2.3 -4.5 13.4 16.5 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.6 0.4 -1.4 35.9 38.5 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 0.8 1.3 0.9 -2.0 28.1 30.1 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.4 3.2 1.3 -0.6 44.1 45.1 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 0.6 0.8 1.0 -2.4 25.2 27.7 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 1.9 2.2 1.0 0.6 56.7 56.2 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 1.8 1.8 0.6 -2.8 23.4 26.7 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 0.6 0.8 0.4 -2.7 21.6 24.2 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 0.9 1.2 1.0 -2.6 24.2 26.7 2.4 4.4 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.7 3.3 1.4 -1.7 33.2 35.1 3.3 5.4 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.4 1.5 0.1 -2.1 29.1 31.6 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 4.8 5.7 2.6 1.1 63.4 62.3 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.9 2.9 1.9 -0.9 39.6 40.8 2.0 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 1.5 0.5 -2.7 -4.5 14.0 17.7 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 2.1 2.0 1.7 0.4 54.2 54.0 -0.4 1.5 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 0.8 1.5 1.6 -1.7 31.1 33.0 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------