***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 5.0 3.1 -0.9 41.0 43.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.9 4.6 3.0 -1.0 40.3 43.5 3.6 6.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.5 3.1 -1.2 38.6 41.9 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -1.9 -1.7 0.1 -2.1 30.1 35.7 -1.3 0.8 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.7 1.2 -1.6 34.8 39.1 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.3 1.3 -0.5 45.7 47.7 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.5 3.1 -0.7 43.2 45.8 3.1 5.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -1.3 1.7 -0.5 45.7 47.1 -2.5 -0.9 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.6 5.7 2.1 -1.4 37.3 40.6 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.5 6.0 2.0 -0.9 41.9 44.0 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.6 1.6 -1.1 39.0 42.3 4.7 7.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.5 2.2 -0.4 46.3 47.6 4.9 6.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.7 2.1 0.0 49.6 50.1 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.0 6.5 2.8 -1.1 40.1 42.5 5.4 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.2 3.0 -0.1 -2.5 26.8 33.2 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.5 6.0 1.4 -1.0 40.9 43.9 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.4 2.7 -1.1 39.7 43.2 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.0 5.8 2.1 -0.5 45.8 46.8 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.2 4.5 3.0 -1.2 38.8 42.2 3.6 6.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 3.6 3.2 0.9 0.2 51.7 51.7 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.4 2.5 -1.4 36.8 40.5 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.5 2.6 -1.4 36.3 40.2 4.0 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.8 5.0 3.1 -1.3 38.3 41.6 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.8 6.5 2.8 -0.9 41.5 43.6 5.3 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.6 4.2 1.4 -1.3 37.4 41.2 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.0 2.5 0.6 56.2 55.1 4.4 6.3 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.2 5.2 2.5 -0.8 42.4 44.8 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.1 4.2 0.1 -2.4 28.8 34.7 4.8 7.2 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.5 1.8 -0.1 49.5 49.7 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.8 4.5 3.1 -1.0 40.8 43.8 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------