***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 5.4 4.7 0.0 49.8 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.1 4.4 -0.2 47.3 50.6 3.7 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.9 4.6 -0.3 45.9 49.6 4.6 6.2 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -1.9 -1.4 1.5 -1.2 33.7 40.7 -1.5 0.0 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.4 2.8 -0.6 42.0 46.7 4.6 6.1 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.2 3.0 0.7 61.1 59.7 4.0 5.4 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.1 4.6 0.1 52.0 53.9 3.3 4.9 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -1.1 3.3 0.5 58.6 57.6 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.3 6.2 3.8 -0.3 45.4 48.9 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.6 3.6 0.2 52.8 53.7 4.9 6.4 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.3 3.2 -0.1 47.9 50.7 4.9 6.5 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.9 3.7 0.5 58.5 57.7 4.8 6.2 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 7.9 7.6 3.9 1.0 65.6 62.5 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.6 4.4 -0.1 47.9 50.0 5.2 6.8 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.6 3.7 1.6 -1.5 29.8 37.6 4.0 5.6 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.9 3.1 0.1 51.6 53.3 5.2 6.7 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.7 4.2 -0.2 46.8 49.9 3.5 5.0 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.3 3.7 0.6 58.5 57.4 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.0 4.5 -0.3 45.3 49.2 3.7 5.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.7 2.4 1.1 66.7 63.2 1.2 2.4 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.1 5.8 4.1 -0.4 43.9 48.0 4.8 6.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.9 4.1 -0.5 42.4 46.7 3.9 5.6 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.3 4.6 -0.4 44.8 48.7 4.1 5.7 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.8 4.4 0.1 51.1 52.6 5.2 6.7 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.9 3.0 -0.3 45.6 49.0 3.8 5.3 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.5 3.9 1.3 70.9 66.5 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.9 4.2 0.2 52.8 54.1 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.1 4.6 1.7 -1.3 32.4 39.7 4.7 6.3 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.0 3.7 3.3 0.9 64.4 61.6 1.2 2.6 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.1 4.6 -0.1 48.6 51.6 3.6 5.2 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------