***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 11.5 18.1 168.5 83.6 72.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 7.6 10.9 16.9 172.5 83.0 74.2 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 12.9 18.2 18.2 164.4 82.1 72.5 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 17.7 25.9 23.3 195.9 87.5 82.5 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 16.7 22.3 20.6 167.9 82.6 76.3 4.4 8.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 15.7 19.9 20.1 163.0 81.9 76.2 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 8.2 12.1 16.4 171.5 83.1 73.5 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 22.7 28.2 20.7 156.6 80.2 72.2 7.0 12.1 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 11.4 14.7 17.7 145.6 77.4 69.1 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 14.3 17.2 18.6 143.1 76.8 69.2 3.9 7.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 13.6 16.7 18.1 153.9 79.4 72.1 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 12.8 17.2 19.6 162.1 81.7 73.4 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 16.1 21.8 20.6 162.3 81.6 75.1 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 15.4 18.8 19.5 148.5 78.0 71.0 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 15.8 35.5 30.5 281.9 94.2 90.5 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 14.3 18.6 19.6 163.9 82.1 75.9 3.5 6.7 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 7.1 10.2 16.1 169.4 82.2 73.3 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.1 15.8 20.4 144.1 77.2 68.9 4.5 7.6 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 8.5 11.7 17.4 167.5 82.1 73.5 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 12.9 16.9 28.4 165.7 81.7 73.1 4.2 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 11.8 16.0 18.0 156.5 79.8 70.9 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 7.5 10.7 17.2 168.5 82.0 74.5 2.1 3.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 8.8 11.9 18.5 160.5 80.8 72.9 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 14.4 18.0 19.3 149.6 78.5 70.3 4.5 7.9 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 14.8 21.2 21.6 172.2 84.1 76.2 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 15.4 23.1 25.7 195.8 87.5 80.6 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 10.0 13.9 18.7 160.9 82.0 71.5 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 14.5 23.7 24.4 221.5 89.3 85.0 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 19.4 24.2 23.1 151.2 79.1 70.3 7.1 11.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 8.4 11.9 17.3 171.6 83.3 73.5 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------