***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 7.3 11.0 107.5 65.7 55.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.7 10.4 116.7 68.9 56.2 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.6 8.4 11.5 114.1 67.8 57.0 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 8.6 11.9 12.8 113.4 68.1 59.7 3.9 7.0 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 9.0 11.5 12.2 107.4 65.6 57.5 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.1 9.1 12.3 108.2 65.9 57.9 3.4 5.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.4 7.0 10.1 113.3 67.6 55.5 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 11.3 13.7 12.7 104.1 63.9 55.3 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.6 12.4 105.7 64.7 56.4 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.3 9.8 12.8 102.9 63.1 55.1 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.8 10.1 11.4 107.4 65.6 57.2 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.2 8.2 11.5 109.1 66.3 57.2 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 7.4 9.6 11.8 108.5 65.9 57.3 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.7 10.0 13.1 113.5 67.3 57.0 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.9 11.6 14.1 124.9 71.9 62.8 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.7 8.9 11.5 110.2 66.5 58.2 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.5 9.2 9.7 119.8 69.9 57.3 2.6 4.9 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.7 14.0 101.2 61.9 54.3 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.7 8.8 10.8 118.7 69.5 56.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.3 15.7 96.6 60.2 53.0 2.8 5.3 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.6 8.1 11.9 109.3 66.1 56.6 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 8.5 8.6 10.4 122.8 70.8 57.8 2.7 4.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.4 8.7 11.5 118.5 69.3 57.6 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.3 10.2 13.0 108.5 65.3 56.2 3.6 6.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.2 12.4 102.1 63.5 54.5 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.8 7.8 11.9 111.8 67.3 58.0 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.6 11.6 102.2 63.3 53.5 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.8 9.1 13.2 122.4 70.7 62.1 2.3 4.5 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.8 14.6 99.1 60.9 53.7 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.9 10.7 114.5 68.1 55.8 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------