***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 7.5 12.4 116.3 68.4 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.6 9.9 11.8 113.6 67.8 54.2 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.2 14.3 12.7 120.4 69.7 53.0 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.7 16.4 14.8 124.3 70.8 54.2 4.6 8.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.4 14.3 13.9 117.6 68.6 53.6 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.8 11.2 14.5 115.9 67.7 52.9 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.1 7.8 11.4 110.0 66.8 53.8 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.9 20.6 14.4 109.7 65.3 52.1 9.9 14.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.3 12.4 13.9 116.6 68.1 53.4 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.7 14.8 14.6 111.8 66.0 52.4 5.3 9.4 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.4 11.7 13.2 116.7 68.0 52.6 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.0 14.1 12.9 115.8 67.8 52.5 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.3 14.4 13.9 119.3 69.0 53.4 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.8 18.2 15.9 121.4 69.8 53.7 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 14.1 15.4 15.5 136.6 74.5 55.0 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.9 11.5 13.5 120.9 69.6 53.2 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.7 11.3 112.9 67.6 55.0 2.8 5.1 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 13.8 16.4 113.8 66.8 52.9 4.8 8.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.7 11.2 12.3 117.5 68.9 54.1 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.2 19.0 109.0 65.2 52.5 4.3 8.2 13.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.3 13.1 13.0 117.1 68.4 53.0 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.7 10.0 11.9 110.1 66.5 54.1 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.3 11.0 13.1 121.7 70.1 54.0 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.0 15.1 15.2 121.2 69.6 53.4 3.5 7.4 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.5 14.5 14.2 115.7 67.9 53.6 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.2 11.5 14.0 122.5 70.2 54.5 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.8 11.2 13.3 112.9 67.2 53.5 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.7 14.9 130.8 72.8 54.5 3.1 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.7 23.1 17.7 113.4 66.8 53.2 10.5 16.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.8 10.2 11.9 114.3 68.0 53.7 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------