***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 41.3 49.2 121.8 72.3 62.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 35.6 36.4 46.5 123.4 72.1 64.2 15.9 23.3 32.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 50.3 53.3 50.1 124.1 73.6 64.1 23.6 33.9 45.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 55.4 63.6 58.9 132.0 77.5 67.9 29.7 40.3 52.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 56.5 60.5 54.9 122.3 73.0 63.9 30.7 41.5 53.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 46.1 47.7 55.7 120.1 71.2 62.6 22.6 32.1 43.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 34.1 34.0 45.3 121.1 71.0 63.2 15.6 22.6 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 67.0 77.2 57.0 116.0 68.6 60.4 48.9 61.1 74.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 37.8 45.6 52.5 116.1 69.2 60.4 25.1 33.6 43.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 46.9 53.6 55.1 112.5 66.6 58.7 32.1 41.9 53.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 49.2 49.8 50.4 117.5 69.8 61.2 25.6 35.4 46.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 49.7 51.4 51.7 120.2 71.5 62.3 22.9 33.5 46.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 54.5 57.1 54.2 120.7 72.1 62.9 28.4 39.0 51.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 56.5 58.4 58.2 119.8 71.6 63.0 34.0 43.5 54.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 52.7 72.7 67.8 158.2 85.0 75.8 18.5 29.7 44.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 46.2 48.0 52.0 121.3 72.1 63.3 23.2 32.4 42.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 36.9 38.1 44.9 124.9 72.7 64.6 16.9 24.4 33.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 43.7 50.3 61.3 113.0 67.2 59.3 28.2 38.3 49.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 39.4 41.1 48.0 124.4 72.8 64.7 18.5 26.5 36.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 46.0 54.3 75.8 116.0 68.3 60.2 30.1 40.6 52.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 48.1 50.1 51.1 120.8 71.9 62.5 24.9 34.5 45.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 37.2 38.7 47.8 125.4 73.0 65.4 16.4 24.2 33.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 37.8 40.0 51.0 124.8 73.7 65.1 18.2 25.7 34.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 55.6 56.7 56.9 119.0 71.3 62.3 33.3 42.5 52.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 52.8 55.3 56.8 121.8 72.5 63.5 25.1 36.1 48.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 46.1 53.6 60.0 133.4 79.4 68.4 22.8 31.6 41.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 44.0 43.5 52.0 117.2 69.4 61.0 20.9 29.9 40.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 50.3 62.8 60.2 140.8 79.6 70.5 19.3 30.4 44.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 68.9 79.2 67.1 114.3 68.2 60.1 48.8 62.2 76.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 36.6 37.1 47.3 122.7 72.0 63.8 16.5 24.1 33.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------