***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 0.9 2.8 1.4 3.9 82.8 78.7 -4.4 -2.1 0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 0.2 2.2 1.5 4.1 85.1 80.1 -4.7 -2.6 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 2.7 4.4 1.7 4.2 84.4 80.3 -1.9 0.0 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 -2.6 -0.5 -0.5 4.7 86.7 82.2 -7.6 -5.6 -3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 -0.5 0.8 -0.3 4.1 83.0 79.3 -4.8 -3.0 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 -1.4 -0.1 -2.4 4.2 84.0 79.5 -5.6 -3.9 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 0.4 2.3 1.5 4.0 84.5 79.3 -4.5 -2.5 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 -5.7 -4.8 -2.6 3.7 80.8 76.8 -9.3 -7.8 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 0.7 2.2 -0.2 4.2 83.8 80.5 -3.6 -1.8 -0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 0.0 1.1 -1.9 3.9 81.7 77.9 -3.8 -2.2 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 -0.3 0.9 -1.0 4.1 82.5 79.2 -4.5 -2.8 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 -1.4 -0.5 -1.7 3.9 80.8 77.4 -5.2 -3.6 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 -0.7 0.4 -1.8 3.9 81.5 77.8 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 1.1 2.7 -0.1 4.5 85.8 82.2 -2.9 -1.3 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 0.4 2.6 0.9 4.9 88.1 84.4 -4.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 0.4 1.6 -1.4 4.2 83.1 79.6 -3.7 -2.1 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 0.0 1.8 1.7 4.1 85.6 80.0 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 -2.4 -1.3 -2.1 4.0 83.0 78.5 -5.9 -4.5 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 0.4 2.4 1.5 4.1 85.3 80.8 -4.5 -2.4 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 -5.1 -4.1 -3.7 3.3 79.1 73.9 -9.9 -7.9 -6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 0.4 1.8 1.0 4.1 83.3 79.8 -4.0 -2.1 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 0.2 2.2 1.6 4.1 85.7 80.7 -4.6 -2.6 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 0.0 1.7 1.2 4.2 85.7 81.6 -4.2 -2.5 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 0.1 1.5 -0.2 4.3 85.4 81.2 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 -0.1 1.3 0.7 4.1 83.6 79.9 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 -0.9 -0.1 -2.2 3.6 79.2 75.6 -4.7 -3.1 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 0.8 2.6 1.1 4.0 82.5 78.5 -4.6 -2.3 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 -0.8 1.1 -0.1 4.8 86.7 82.4 -5.4 -3.6 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 -2.0 -0.9 -3.0 3.7 81.7 77.0 -6.1 -4.4 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 0.8 2.8 1.5 4.0 84.4 79.7 -4.4 -2.2 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------