***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 0.0 1.3 1.3 3.3 88.8 85.9 -3.2 -2.0 -0.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 -0.6 1.1 1.5 3.6 90.5 87.5 -4.2 -2.9 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 1.5 3.1 1.5 3.5 90.4 87.7 -1.6 -0.4 0.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 -4.1 -2.1 -0.9 3.9 92.2 89.3 -7.5 -6.2 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 -1.3 -0.1 -0.8 3.2 88.4 85.3 -4.1 -3.0 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 -2.3 -0.9 -2.8 3.4 90.3 85.9 -4.9 -3.9 -2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 -0.4 1.1 1.5 3.5 89.6 86.5 -3.9 -2.6 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 -6.7 -5.6 -2.8 3.0 87.4 83.3 -9.4 -8.4 -7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 -0.4 0.8 -0.6 3.2 88.3 85.2 -3.2 -2.1 -1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 -0.8 0.3 -2.2 3.1 87.9 84.0 -3.3 -2.3 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 -1.0 0.1 -1.5 3.2 87.3 84.4 -3.7 -2.7 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 -2.1 -1.1 -2.0 3.2 86.7 83.5 -4.6 -3.6 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 -1.4 -0.1 -2.1 3.2 87.8 84.0 -4.1 -3.0 -2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 0.0 1.4 -0.4 3.7 91.1 87.9 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 -0.4 1.3 0.5 4.1 92.6 90.3 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 -0.5 0.6 -1.8 3.4 88.6 85.6 -3.0 -2.1 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 -0.6 0.9 1.6 3.6 90.4 87.1 -4.0 -2.7 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 -2.9 -1.6 -2.4 3.3 89.6 85.3 -5.4 -4.4 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 -0.5 1.1 1.4 3.6 90.6 87.9 -4.0 -2.7 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 -5.9 -4.6 -3.8 2.9 87.7 82.2 -8.8 -7.7 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 -0.6 0.6 0.7 3.3 88.9 86.0 -3.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 -0.8 0.8 1.4 3.6 90.4 87.3 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 -0.9 0.4 1.1 3.5 90.3 87.8 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 -1.1 0.3 -0.6 3.6 90.9 87.5 -3.7 -2.7 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 -1.0 0.4 0.4 3.4 89.7 86.5 -3.7 -2.7 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 -1.4 -0.6 -2.5 2.9 85.0 81.6 -3.9 -2.9 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 -0.4 1.0 1.0 3.3 88.4 85.3 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 -1.8 -0.1 -0.4 4.1 92.3 89.6 -4.6 -3.6 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 -3.4 -2.0 -3.2 3.1 88.6 83.7 -6.2 -5.1 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 -0.2 1.3 1.5 3.5 90.0 87.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------