***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.2 11.2 10.0 6.3 94.8 93.8 1.6 3.6 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.4 11.2 10.3 6.5 94.8 93.8 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 8.6 12.7 10.9 6.8 94.7 93.8 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 2.4 5.5 7.6 6.9 94.0 93.1 -2.6 -0.8 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 8.1 11.2 8.6 5.9 92.9 91.9 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 7.1 9.7 7.1 5.4 92.1 90.5 2.2 4.0 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 7.1 11.0 9.8 6.0 94.4 93.3 1.5 3.5 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 1.0 3.3 8.0 5.9 92.1 91.0 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 9.0 12.6 10.0 6.3 93.7 92.7 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 8.4 11.2 8.7 6.0 91.7 90.7 3.1 5.0 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 8.6 11.9 9.5 6.3 93.3 92.3 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 8.5 11.8 8.7 6.1 93.2 92.2 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 8.1 11.2 8.9 5.8 92.8 91.5 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 9.7 13.9 11.3 7.3 94.3 93.5 3.4 5.7 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 7.7 11.4 10.4 7.7 95.4 94.4 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 8.8 12.2 8.6 6.0 93.2 92.0 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 6.8 10.2 9.9 6.1 94.6 93.5 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 6.6 9.0 8.5 6.3 92.7 91.6 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 7.8 11.9 10.6 6.7 94.7 93.9 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 4.4 6.8 6.5 5.5 91.8 90.5 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 8.5 12.1 10.6 6.3 94.0 92.9 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 8.0 11.9 10.2 6.3 94.4 93.4 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.9 11.8 10.9 6.9 94.8 94.0 2.4 4.4 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 9.1 12.9 10.7 6.8 93.9 93.0 3.3 5.4 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 6.7 9.8 8.9 6.0 93.9 92.7 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 7.1 9.3 6.9 4.8 91.2 89.6 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 7.6 11.2 9.2 5.6 94.0 92.7 2.0 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 8.7 12.3 9.1 7.3 94.3 93.4 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 4.9 8.1 7.8 6.1 92.9 91.9 -0.4 1.5 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.3 11.2 10.3 6.5 94.7 93.8 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------