***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9.3 11.7 9.1 4.2 83.6 77.6 3.4 6.0 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 9.0 11.2 9.2 4.2 84.2 78.1 3.6 6.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 9.9 11.9 9.5 4.1 81.9 75.7 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 3.8 6.1 6.9 4.8 86.0 79.2 -1.3 0.8 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 9.5 11.3 7.7 4.0 82.0 75.0 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 8.0 9.4 6.1 3.6 79.7 72.2 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 8.4 10.8 9.0 4.1 84.1 78.0 3.1 5.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 1.1 2.1 6.6 3.5 79.1 71.6 -2.5 -0.9 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 10.2 11.9 8.6 3.9 81.0 74.0 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 9.6 11.0 7.3 3.5 78.1 71.0 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 9.7 11.4 8.0 3.8 80.9 73.8 4.7 7.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 9.6 11.0 7.3 3.7 80.8 73.2 4.9 6.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 9.5 10.9 7.2 3.6 80.0 73.1 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 10.7 12.5 8.9 3.9 80.3 73.4 5.4 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 9.3 11.9 8.6 5.2 87.6 81.5 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 9.9 11.5 7.3 3.9 81.5 74.3 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 8.4 10.3 8.9 4.0 84.2 77.8 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 8.6 9.9 7.0 3.5 79.0 71.2 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 9.4 11.7 9.3 4.3 83.7 77.6 3.6 6.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 5.4 6.6 5.2 3.5 80.3 72.1 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 9.8 11.5 9.2 3.9 81.2 74.5 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 9.5 11.5 9.1 4.0 83.5 77.0 4.0 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 9.6 11.6 9.4 4.2 82.7 76.4 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 10.4 12.2 8.7 3.7 79.7 72.5 5.3 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 8.4 10.2 7.9 4.1 83.8 77.5 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 8.8 10.0 6.3 3.6 81.2 74.0 4.4 6.3 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 9.1 11.1 8.5 4.0 83.1 77.1 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 10.4 12.8 7.7 4.8 85.5 78.7 4.8 7.2 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 5.8 7.1 6.4 3.5 79.7 71.6 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 8.8 11.1 9.2 4.2 83.8 77.9 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------