***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 8.8 9.8 9.2 3.2 78.2 72.3 3.8 6.0 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 8.1 9.3 9.3 3.2 78.6 72.8 3.0 5.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 8.8 9.9 9.8 3.2 77.4 71.7 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 2.2 3.8 6.9 3.4 79.5 72.2 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 9.0 9.8 7.9 3.0 77.0 70.5 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.4 6.3 2.6 73.5 66.8 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 7.6 8.9 9.1 3.1 78.7 72.9 2.6 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 0.1 0.8 7.0 2.8 76.3 69.4 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 9.3 10.1 8.6 3.0 76.4 70.0 4.0 6.3 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 8.8 9.6 7.7 2.9 76.0 69.3 4.0 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 9.2 10.0 7.9 3.0 76.7 70.3 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 8.6 9.3 7.6 2.8 76.2 69.7 3.9 5.9 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 9.0 9.7 6.8 2.7 75.6 68.8 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 9.3 10.1 9.0 3.2 77.1 70.7 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 8.1 9.9 7.8 3.6 80.9 73.5 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 9.7 10.4 7.3 2.9 76.4 69.9 4.7 6.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 7.4 8.6 9.1 3.1 78.6 72.5 2.8 4.9 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 8.3 9.0 7.8 3.0 76.5 69.6 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 8.1 9.3 9.5 3.2 78.0 72.3 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 4.6 5.4 5.5 2.8 77.0 69.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 9.1 10.0 9.2 3.0 76.7 70.6 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 8.1 9.4 9.3 3.1 78.2 72.1 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 8.2 9.3 9.8 3.1 77.0 71.3 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 9.4 10.3 8.9 3.1 77.0 70.5 3.9 6.3 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 8.1 9.2 7.8 3.2 78.6 71.9 3.2 5.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 8.8 9.4 6.6 2.7 76.6 69.5 4.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 8.8 9.9 8.6 3.1 78.3 72.0 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 8.9 10.5 7.3 3.4 79.0 71.9 3.6 6.0 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 4.7 5.5 7.0 3.0 76.8 69.5 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 8.0 9.1 9.3 3.2 78.4 72.8 2.9 5.2 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------