***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9.4 10.0 9.5 2.7 72.8 68.3 5.2 7.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 8.4 9.3 9.6 2.8 73.2 69.1 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.4 10.0 10.0 2.7 71.8 67.7 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 2.7 3.5 7.2 3.0 74.2 69.1 -1.9 0.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 9.4 10.0 8.0 2.6 71.4 66.9 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 8.6 8.6 6.3 2.2 69.2 64.6 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 8.1 9.0 9.5 2.7 73.5 69.2 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 0.2 0.4 6.9 2.3 69.9 65.6 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 9.7 10.1 8.6 2.5 70.2 66.0 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 9.7 9.8 7.7 2.3 69.4 65.3 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 9.9 10.3 7.9 2.4 70.5 66.2 5.2 7.4 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 9.4 9.6 7.6 2.2 69.9 65.6 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.0 6.7 2.1 69.6 65.0 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 10.0 10.3 9.0 2.5 70.0 66.4 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 8.7 9.5 8.0 3.1 75.3 70.1 4.3 6.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.6 7.4 2.4 70.9 66.2 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 7.9 8.6 9.4 2.6 73.0 68.9 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 9.2 9.2 7.6 2.4 69.3 65.4 4.6 6.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 8.6 9.4 9.8 2.7 72.5 68.5 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 5.5 5.7 5.3 2.3 71.5 66.3 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 9.5 10.0 9.3 2.6 70.9 66.7 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 8.6 9.2 9.5 2.6 72.1 68.3 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 9.1 9.5 10.0 2.6 71.2 67.5 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 9.8 10.0 8.9 2.5 69.8 66.1 5.1 7.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 8.6 9.2 7.9 2.7 73.2 68.2 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 9.6 9.8 6.6 2.2 71.1 66.0 4.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 8.9 9.6 8.9 2.7 73.0 68.2 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 9.3 10.1 7.5 3.0 73.9 68.9 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.8 6.8 2.3 69.8 65.6 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 8.3 9.2 9.6 2.8 73.2 69.0 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------