***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 8.5 10.8 9.5 4.1 90.9 86.4 4.0 5.7 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 8.1 10.3 9.6 4.2 90.9 86.6 3.7 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 8.9 11.1 10.0 4.2 90.5 86.1 4.6 6.2 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 2.3 4.5 7.1 4.5 91.8 87.6 -1.5 0.0 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 8.6 10.5 8.1 3.9 89.6 84.9 4.6 6.1 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 7.3 8.9 6.4 3.4 87.8 81.9 4.0 5.4 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 7.7 9.9 9.3 4.0 90.8 86.3 3.3 4.9 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 0.1 1.4 7.1 3.6 88.7 83.2 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 9.0 11.0 9.0 3.9 89.6 84.7 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 8.6 10.4 7.9 3.7 88.2 82.8 4.9 6.4 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 8.8 10.8 8.3 3.9 89.5 84.8 4.9 6.5 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 8.4 10.2 7.8 3.7 89.3 84.3 4.8 6.2 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 8.4 10.2 7.4 3.6 88.8 83.3 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 9.5 11.7 9.6 4.2 90.4 85.6 5.2 6.8 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 8.2 10.7 8.7 4.9 93.0 89.4 4.0 5.6 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 9.0 11.0 7.6 3.8 89.6 84.7 5.2 6.7 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 7.5 9.6 9.3 4.0 90.9 86.3 3.5 5.0 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 7.7 9.4 7.7 3.8 89.1 83.4 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 8.4 10.7 9.8 4.2 90.7 86.5 3.7 5.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 4.4 6.1 5.6 3.6 89.6 83.1 1.2 2.4 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 8.8 10.9 9.6 4.0 89.8 85.0 4.8 6.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 8.4 10.7 9.5 4.0 90.6 86.0 3.9 5.6 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 8.5 10.7 10.0 4.2 90.5 86.2 4.1 5.7 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 9.1 11.1 9.3 4.0 89.9 84.8 5.2 6.7 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 7.6 9.6 8.1 4.0 90.7 85.9 3.8 5.3 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 7.8 9.3 6.6 3.3 88.5 82.7 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 8.2 10.3 8.8 3.8 90.5 85.5 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 9.1 11.7 7.9 4.6 91.8 87.8 4.7 6.3 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 4.6 6.5 7.0 3.7 89.5 83.5 1.2 2.6 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 7.9 10.1 9.6 4.2 90.8 86.6 3.6 5.2 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------