***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 8.1 9.8 15.9 134.8 74.0 68.5 2.2 4.4 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 7.4 8.9 14.8 148.5 77.3 72.4 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 7.3 10.7 12.8 108.7 66.1 60.3 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.6 8.4 10.8 72.9 50.1 45.4 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 9.6 11.1 13.0 93.4 60.1 55.2 4.4 8.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.0 6.9 8.1 64.5 46.1 41.2 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 7.9 10.4 15.6 157.2 79.2 73.7 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.6 9.7 8.9 56.7 42.4 38.7 7.0 12.1 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 6.9 8.2 12.3 93.1 60.6 55.5 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 9.3 7.7 10.8 73.7 51.3 47.0 3.9 7.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.4 6.9 9.9 71.1 50.0 45.6 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.9 4.8 8.5 59.5 44.3 40.6 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 9.0 7.5 10.7 73.9 51.4 46.9 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 9.1 10.3 13.2 91.0 59.8 55.0 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.2 4.1 6.8 51.3 42.4 37.7 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 8.4 6.9 9.9 72.6 51.1 46.4 3.5 6.7 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 7.3 9.3 14.8 158.8 79.6 74.2 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.1 11.2 74.4 52.0 47.8 4.5 7.6 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 7.9 9.1 14.3 136.6 74.3 69.2 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.1 5.1 9.5 50.8 39.1 35.5 4.2 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 7.0 9.5 13.2 102.5 64.2 58.2 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 7.6 9.9 15.5 159.7 79.7 74.5 2.1 3.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 5.0 7.7 13.2 114.4 68.2 62.6 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 9.4 9.9 11.8 86.4 57.8 52.8 4.5 7.9 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 7.9 13.5 17.8 127.5 71.7 65.9 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.6 5.8 8.3 57.3 42.6 38.6 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 9.4 11.6 18.0 145.8 76.6 71.2 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.0 8.0 60.0 44.9 40.2 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.2 10.9 10.8 66.7 47.9 43.9 7.1 11.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 7.6 9.1 14.7 141.2 75.4 70.3 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------