***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.2 8.1 75.5 52.6 42.1 2.0 3.8 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.2 5.2 7.6 80.6 56.0 42.7 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.3 8.2 77.6 53.7 44.0 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.8 8.0 9.3 77.6 54.6 43.8 3.9 7.0 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.0 9.5 78.2 53.3 43.7 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.5 10.4 90.5 59.1 48.4 3.4 5.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.1 5.0 7.6 82.4 56.8 43.8 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.5 11.8 11.3 89.6 58.6 48.0 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.4 9.6 80.0 54.0 44.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.8 11.3 92.0 59.4 48.7 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.0 10.4 89.6 58.5 48.7 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.5 10.3 87.8 58.1 47.9 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.3 11.4 93.5 60.8 50.4 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.9 11.0 85.4 56.9 46.1 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.4 7.8 74.3 55.2 42.3 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.0 10.3 88.0 58.3 48.4 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.9 7.5 81.6 55.8 40.9 2.6 4.9 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.1 12.0 92.0 59.1 48.0 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.5 7.6 78.6 54.7 42.4 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.8 15.0 91.2 58.1 47.6 2.8 5.3 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.8 9.2 79.9 54.2 45.1 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.8 8.0 84.8 56.8 41.6 2.7 4.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.9 7.9 76.0 53.3 42.6 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.7 7.7 10.4 84.4 56.0 45.5 3.6 6.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.9 6.2 10.1 80.6 53.7 43.1 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.4 10.2 81.4 55.7 45.6 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.0 6.6 9.4 80.5 54.3 43.4 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.4 8.5 76.5 54.9 43.1 2.3 4.5 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.2 13.0 92.5 59.2 47.8 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.1 4.7 7.5 78.3 54.9 42.5 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------