***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.4 4.9 7.9 70.1 49.2 34.9 2.3 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.2 5.1 7.1 70.6 49.8 34.6 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.7 5.9 7.5 68.4 48.3 34.6 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.4 8.8 8.3 71.2 50.3 36.3 4.6 8.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.0 8.8 74.3 50.9 37.7 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.1 6.3 8.0 72.2 49.1 36.8 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.0 4.5 7.3 74.5 52.0 36.2 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 9.1 14.6 9.1 72.4 48.9 37.6 9.9 14.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.0 9.3 74.9 50.4 37.8 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.3 9.3 9.7 74.8 49.9 38.2 5.3 9.4 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.2 6.1 8.3 72.9 49.3 37.3 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.4 6.9 7.8 70.4 47.9 36.6 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.8 7.2 8.3 70.6 48.1 37.0 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.6 11.0 10.5 78.5 52.8 39.4 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 3.2 6.4 6.7 60.8 47.5 32.1 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.8 5.5 8.2 73.0 49.5 37.3 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.4 5.8 7.5 78.6 54.2 37.7 2.8 5.1 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.6 8.8 10.7 77.3 51.1 39.5 4.8 8.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.3 5.4 7.1 69.5 49.0 34.4 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.4 8.5 12.8 75.3 50.8 39.2 4.3 8.2 13.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.4 8.6 73.0 50.5 37.2 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 3.1 6.6 7.4 73.0 51.1 35.7 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.0 5.9 7.8 72.4 50.2 36.0 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.6 7.9 9.7 76.0 51.2 38.3 3.5 7.4 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.8 9.4 76.8 52.8 38.1 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.7 5.1 7.5 65.9 46.8 35.4 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.1 8.7 73.8 51.1 36.7 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.8 6.2 7.3 65.8 48.0 34.0 3.1 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 10.0 16.7 11.6 78.1 51.7 40.2 10.5 16.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.4 5.3 7.1 68.3 48.6 33.7 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------