***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.5 5.7 8.0 65.0 47.3 37.7 3.8 6.1 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.2 4.1 7.3 70.2 49.8 39.1 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.2 5.7 7.7 66.9 47.4 37.0 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.5 9.8 75.6 52.1 38.0 4.2 7.0 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.8 7.5 9.8 75.8 51.4 39.9 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 4.9 8.7 69.8 48.8 39.6 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.8 7.2 70.4 49.6 39.4 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.2 11.7 10.1 72.8 49.7 40.6 7.0 11.8 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.2 6.2 10.1 75.8 50.9 40.1 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.7 6.9 10.6 75.7 50.6 40.6 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.7 6.4 9.2 74.6 50.7 40.3 3.4 6.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.7 6.5 8.9 72.8 49.9 40.7 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.2 9.4 73.4 50.0 40.8 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.1 7.5 10.4 74.5 50.6 40.4 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.3 5.6 8.9 74.7 53.7 36.0 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.7 5.9 9.0 73.1 50.1 40.0 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.0 7.5 75.2 52.8 41.4 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.6 11.4 77.5 51.6 41.5 3.6 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.5 7.3 69.0 48.7 38.3 2.6 4.7 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 9.6 13.9 73.6 51.1 41.5 4.8 9.3 15.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.8 5.6 9.3 72.8 49.8 39.2 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.5 5.1 7.9 75.2 52.3 40.8 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.5 4.4 7.7 68.9 47.9 37.8 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.9 8.4 9.9 74.7 50.3 40.0 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.7 5.4 9.8 70.5 49.6 39.3 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.9 6.2 8.8 69.5 48.7 38.9 3.9 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.2 5.3 8.6 66.4 47.7 38.5 3.3 5.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.6 6.1 9.0 74.7 52.2 37.2 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 13.1 12.3 77.8 51.9 41.9 6.4 12.3 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.0 7.2 66.2 47.6 37.3 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------