***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.4 23.1 39.8 86.6 47.9 44.7 15.9 24.4 34.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 27.5 24.5 36.7 92.4 52.5 48.0 15.9 23.3 32.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 39.8 29.3 36.3 80.7 42.9 40.9 23.6 33.9 45.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 28.0 31.7 38.2 74.3 36.2 35.7 29.7 40.3 52.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 47.4 35.9 41.1 80.8 41.3 40.3 30.7 41.5 53.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 20.8 22.8 35.2 74.1 33.4 34.2 22.6 32.1 43.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.4 25.0 37.7 96.2 55.2 50.4 15.6 22.6 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 46.1 48.6 39.5 71.9 32.9 33.9 48.9 61.1 74.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 38.0 29.1 41.3 81.0 41.5 40.6 25.1 33.6 43.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 31.7 35.0 42.3 78.5 38.1 38.3 32.1 41.9 53.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 25.0 27.9 37.8 76.7 37.3 37.2 25.6 35.4 46.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 22.0 22.9 35.5 72.0 33.0 34.0 22.9 33.5 46.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 45.2 30.9 39.7 77.7 37.0 37.2 28.4 39.0 51.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 33.4 38.9 45.0 82.4 41.8 41.1 34.0 43.5 54.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 17.1 18.1 30.3 64.7 32.5 31.3 18.5 29.7 44.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.1 25.0 37.4 76.5 36.5 36.7 23.2 32.4 42.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.6 27.7 37.3 98.1 56.4 50.7 16.9 24.4 33.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 28.1 31.6 45.3 79.8 38.8 38.8 28.2 38.3 49.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 30.9 26.2 36.3 88.7 49.3 45.7 18.5 26.5 36.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 27.5 30.3 51.2 72.0 33.6 34.1 30.1 40.6 52.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 39.7 30.5 40.3 82.4 43.6 41.8 24.9 34.5 45.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.0 27.3 38.8 97.5 55.8 50.2 16.4 24.2 33.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 30.0 23.1 36.5 83.4 44.6 42.5 18.2 25.7 34.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 47.3 37.3 41.8 80.4 40.4 39.9 33.3 42.5 52.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 42.3 35.3 47.1 89.4 49.1 45.8 25.1 36.1 48.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 21.8 21.5 34.8 68.2 30.5 31.8 22.8 31.6 41.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 34.9 30.7 44.7 91.6 51.2 47.4 20.9 29.9 40.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 17.3 19.0 32.7 68.9 32.9 32.9 19.3 30.4 44.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 47.3 52.6 47.8 78.3 37.7 37.7 48.8 62.2 76.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 28.3 23.8 36.5 88.4 49.5 45.9 16.5 24.1 33.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------