***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 6.7 4.9 2.1 72.5 70.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 6.2 6.1 4.3 1.6 66.6 65.4 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 7.5 7.9 5.4 2.4 73.1 71.4 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 47 53 100 0.8 0.8 2.3 1.6 65.9 64.8 -2.7 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 6.7 6.7 3.4 1.8 67.7 66.2 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 48 52 100 5.5 5.7 2.2 1.5 67.4 65.6 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 4.3 5.0 3.6 1.0 60.7 59.9 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 0.2 0.5 3.2 2.1 71.6 69.6 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 7.6 7.8 4.7 2.1 70.2 68.4 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.5 4.0 2.2 71.1 69.3 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 7.0 7.0 3.6 1.8 67.5 66.0 3.1 5.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 7.1 7.3 3.3 1.8 68.6 66.9 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 46 54 100 6.7 6.6 3.0 1.4 65.7 64.0 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 8.8 9.3 5.6 2.9 74.5 72.8 3.8 6.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 5.1 6.2 3.3 1.5 64.1 63.1 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 7.1 7.1 3.0 1.5 66.1 64.6 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.4 5.3 3.8 1.3 63.2 62.2 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 5.8 6.3 3.9 2.5 74.1 72.2 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.7 6.8 4.9 2.1 70.4 69.0 2.2 4.3 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.6 4.1 2.1 2.3 74.3 72.4 -0.1 1.6 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.3 7.5 5.0 2.1 70.7 69.0 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.2 4.9 2.1 70.8 69.5 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 7.1 7.4 5.5 2.4 72.9 71.3 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 8.0 8.6 5.2 2.7 73.9 72.1 3.6 5.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.8 3.5 1.9 69.9 68.3 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 49 51 100 6.1 6.1 2.3 1.3 65.6 64.1 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 6.4 6.5 4.1 1.8 70.4 68.8 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 47 53 100 7.3 7.1 2.9 1.6 64.8 63.7 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 4.1 4.9 3.4 2.7 76.6 74.6 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.3 4.7 1.9 69.4 68.0 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------