***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 10.8 6.7 3.2 80.4 74.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 8.8 9.9 6.3 2.9 76.9 71.9 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 10.2 11.6 6.9 3.2 79.8 74.0 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 3.6 5.4 5.0 3.2 81.0 74.2 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 9.8 11.6 5.6 3.3 81.1 74.4 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 8.4 10.0 4.3 3.1 80.8 73.3 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 8.4 9.7 6.2 2.9 77.2 72.1 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 0.9 1.9 4.6 2.9 79.2 73.0 -2.3 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 10.5 12.1 6.3 3.3 80.5 74.0 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 10.1 11.5 5.3 3.1 79.5 73.1 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 10.1 11.9 5.5 3.3 81.6 74.7 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 9.6 11.1 5.2 3.0 80.2 73.8 5.1 7.2 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 9.7 11.3 4.7 3.0 80.2 73.5 4.9 7.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 10.8 11.8 6.2 2.8 76.4 70.7 5.5 7.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 8.8 10.6 5.1 3.1 80.5 74.1 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 10.2 12.0 5.2 3.2 81.6 74.4 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 8.0 8.7 5.9 2.5 74.2 69.6 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 8.9 10.0 4.8 2.9 77.7 71.8 4.6 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 9.3 10.5 6.6 3.0 77.2 72.1 3.7 6.2 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 5.5 6.2 2.6 2.4 75.7 70.5 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 10.1 11.7 6.7 3.3 80.6 74.3 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 9.0 9.7 6.2 2.5 73.9 69.3 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 9.5 10.6 6.8 3.0 77.5 72.0 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 10.8 12.1 6.1 3.0 78.3 72.3 5.6 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 8.5 10.0 5.3 3.1 80.3 74.0 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 8.8 10.0 4.4 2.8 79.5 73.3 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 9.4 10.9 5.9 3.2 80.0 74.0 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.2 12.3 5.3 3.3 81.3 74.3 4.9 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 5.9 6.8 3.9 2.7 76.8 71.3 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 8.9 10.2 6.6 3.1 78.4 73.1 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------