***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 6.5 7.3 1.0 59.2 57.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.5 7.0 0.8 57.6 56.2 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.5 7.6 1.0 58.8 57.1 5.1 7.3 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.4 1.8 5.6 1.1 60.1 57.4 -1.8 0.5 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.7 6.2 1.0 59.5 57.2 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.5 4.4 0.7 57.2 55.3 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.1 6.8 0.8 57.6 56.1 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -1.0 5.0 0.8 57.2 55.6 -4.0 -1.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.9 6.9 1.0 58.9 56.9 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.7 5.8 0.9 58.0 56.2 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.0 6.0 1.0 59.2 57.1 5.5 7.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.3 8.3 5.7 0.8 57.8 56.1 5.0 7.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.9 8.7 5.1 0.8 57.5 55.8 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.9 6.8 0.8 57.2 55.7 5.6 8.0 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.8 5.7 1.0 60.2 57.4 4.5 6.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.1 9.2 5.6 0.9 58.8 56.7 5.7 8.0 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.7 6.5 0.6 55.8 54.9 4.0 6.1 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.1 5.3 0.8 56.7 55.4 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.6 7.3 0.9 57.9 56.4 4.2 6.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.9 2.8 0.4 54.3 53.5 1.1 3.3 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.7 7.3 1.0 58.9 57.0 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.3 6.9 0.6 55.5 54.6 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.0 7.6 0.9 58.1 56.5 4.6 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.7 6.7 0.9 57.7 56.1 5.5 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.7 5.8 0.9 59.0 56.8 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.3 8.1 4.7 0.6 55.9 54.8 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.0 6.4 0.9 58.8 56.8 4.6 6.8 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.5 5.8 1.1 60.3 57.5 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.3 4.3 0.7 56.0 54.8 1.1 3.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.4 7.2 0.9 58.3 56.8 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------