***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 6.6 6.3 1.9 74.3 71.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 7.2 7.4 5.9 1.6 69.7 67.6 3.8 5.5 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 8.2 8.7 6.6 1.9 74.1 71.3 4.7 6.3 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.6 2.0 4.4 1.8 73.1 70.2 -1.5 0.0 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 8.0 8.5 5.2 1.8 74.2 70.8 4.7 6.2 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 7.1 7.3 3.7 1.6 73.3 69.6 4.1 5.4 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 6.7 6.8 5.6 1.4 68.3 66.3 3.4 5.0 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 -0.2 0.0 4.2 1.7 74.2 70.3 -2.8 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.4 9.0 6.0 1.9 74.5 71.0 5.2 6.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 8.3 8.7 5.0 1.8 74.4 70.8 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 8.4 8.8 5.1 1.8 74.8 71.0 5.0 6.5 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 8.0 8.3 4.7 1.7 74.0 70.0 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 8.2 8.4 4.3 1.5 72.9 69.1 5.1 6.5 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 8.9 9.2 6.1 1.8 72.9 69.9 5.3 7.0 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.7 4.7 1.7 71.7 69.3 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 8.6 9.0 4.6 1.7 74.1 70.3 5.3 6.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 6.6 6.6 5.4 1.3 66.5 64.8 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 7.5 7.8 4.6 1.7 74.1 70.5 4.4 5.8 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.8 6.3 1.7 71.1 68.8 3.8 5.5 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 4.1 4.2 2.4 1.4 72.2 68.6 1.2 2.5 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 8.2 8.8 6.3 1.9 74.3 71.2 4.9 6.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 7.4 7.6 5.9 1.5 68.3 66.4 4.0 5.7 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.1 6.6 1.8 72.3 69.7 4.2 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 8.6 9.0 5.9 1.8 74.1 71.0 5.3 6.8 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 7.0 7.5 4.9 1.8 73.6 70.7 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 7.6 7.8 3.8 1.4 71.6 67.9 4.9 6.1 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.5 8.0 5.5 1.7 73.5 70.7 4.2 5.8 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 8.3 8.8 4.8 1.8 72.9 69.9 4.7 6.4 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 4.4 4.7 3.7 1.6 74.3 70.7 1.3 2.7 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.5 6.2 1.7 71.7 69.3 3.7 5.3 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------