***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 15.7 16.8 170.5 83.6 67.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 11.2 17.0 15.7 173.8 83.8 70.2 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 11.4 16.4 15.7 157.2 80.9 65.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 12.8 17.9 17.2 160.3 80.5 67.2 3.5 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 13.0 16.2 17.0 146.0 77.5 64.6 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 10.0 11.9 17.9 141.8 76.2 63.6 3.7 6.1 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 10.0 15.5 16.1 178.5 85.0 70.3 2.7 4.9 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 15.4 18.1 18.5 137.6 75.0 63.9 5.4 9.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.9 12.0 17.1 141.7 76.5 63.5 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 13.5 15.9 18.3 138.4 75.5 64.0 4.4 7.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 11.7 14.5 16.2 139.6 75.5 63.5 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 9.1 10.6 16.4 137.0 74.7 62.9 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 10.9 12.9 17.6 142.4 76.3 63.8 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 13.9 17.6 18.0 144.0 77.1 66.0 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 12.4 18.0 16.1 161.6 80.2 66.7 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 9.4 11.5 16.6 143.3 76.4 63.8 3.2 5.6 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 12.5 17.7 15.7 174.2 83.3 70.7 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 10.5 12.6 20.3 139.7 76.0 64.8 3.9 6.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 11.6 16.7 15.4 165.9 82.2 69.0 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 9.9 12.5 25.1 147.6 78.0 66.2 3.6 6.1 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 10.8 14.7 16.4 151.3 79.3 63.8 2.9 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 11.7 16.1 16.0 168.7 82.1 70.1 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 10.4 15.1 15.5 153.8 79.8 66.9 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 13.3 16.3 17.7 141.2 76.4 64.2 4.6 7.9 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 11.1 15.9 18.7 167.3 82.9 67.4 3.2 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 8.8 11.1 18.1 148.2 77.9 64.9 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 12.2 18.6 18.5 171.6 83.8 67.9 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 9.6 13.2 16.2 153.2 78.7 65.4 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 15.1 18.2 22.1 141.0 76.4 65.5 5.3 8.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 9.8 15.0 15.9 173.2 83.9 69.5 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------