***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 7.2 12.2 109.5 65.4 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.1 8.3 12.5 116.3 68.1 58.3 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.5 11.5 12.2 106.8 63.9 55.4 3.0 6.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.9 14.2 13.4 107.5 64.7 55.8 4.9 9.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.7 13.2 103.0 62.2 53.8 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.1 12.1 15.5 110.6 65.9 57.1 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.9 6.7 12.3 115.0 67.7 57.7 1.6 3.4 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.0 18.9 15.2 97.5 59.3 52.0 9.9 15.2 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.1 10.0 13.1 99.9 60.3 52.4 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.3 14.4 97.0 58.5 51.1 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.4 12.7 98.6 60.3 52.2 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.9 13.2 98.4 60.4 52.8 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.6 14.7 14.4 106.4 64.0 55.8 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.2 14.1 14.6 105.9 63.4 55.2 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.1 11.3 12.6 105.0 64.7 55.0 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.8 13.3 104.2 63.1 55.0 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 7.9 7.1 12.5 115.9 68.1 57.5 2.0 4.0 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.0 16.1 98.0 58.9 51.8 4.9 9.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.6 10.0 12.4 113.2 67.0 57.5 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.1 13.6 21.6 104.4 62.3 54.8 5.3 9.5 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.9 12.3 101.5 61.1 53.0 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.2 13.0 115.8 68.1 57.8 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.3 12.6 108.0 64.8 55.6 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.1 14.1 100.7 60.6 52.9 4.7 8.7 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.8 13.5 13.5 107.3 64.3 55.5 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.8 14.7 107.8 65.1 57.8 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.9 10.3 13.1 108.7 65.0 56.0 2.4 5.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.1 13.2 107.1 65.0 55.6 3.3 7.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.6 20.5 18.1 99.6 59.9 52.9 9.5 15.8 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.5 12.3 114.7 67.4 58.0 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------