***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 6.2 12.4 122.9 70.4 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.2 7.8 12.0 121.3 70.1 53.2 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.0 12.3 121.5 70.0 54.0 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.9 11.6 12.2 119.3 69.4 55.2 4.1 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.8 12.1 12.1 117.5 68.8 56.2 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.8 12.1 106.2 64.9 55.3 3.2 5.7 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.4 8.6 12.1 122.2 70.4 52.8 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.9 17.9 12.7 105.9 65.2 55.3 7.3 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.5 10.7 12.4 117.9 68.8 56.0 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.5 10.8 12.8 109.7 66.2 55.4 3.3 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.6 9.7 11.2 109.0 66.2 55.4 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.0 11.1 107.1 65.6 55.1 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.9 11.7 109.2 66.1 56.1 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.5 13.3 14.3 118.8 69.2 56.3 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.7 10.7 11.6 120.4 70.0 53.4 2.2 5.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.4 11.2 109.0 66.1 55.3 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.4 9.8 11.7 121.5 70.4 53.7 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.5 12.3 14.7 111.7 66.8 55.7 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.3 12.1 120.7 69.9 53.7 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 16.3 17.8 111.4 67.0 55.9 5.1 9.5 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.5 10.9 12.2 120.9 69.8 55.0 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.6 9.2 11.8 118.9 69.6 54.3 2.2 4.7 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.5 12.5 119.6 69.5 54.7 2.6 4.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.0 14.2 13.6 116.0 68.2 55.5 5.3 8.9 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.7 10.1 13.4 122.2 70.1 54.3 2.3 5.0 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.0 11.7 107.2 66.0 55.7 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.5 13.3 122.2 70.2 53.8 3.0 5.0 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.1 11.2 11.3 114.2 68.0 54.4 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.7 22.1 16.5 114.2 67.7 55.9 7.3 13.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.4 8.6 12.1 121.5 70.1 52.9 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------