***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 30.7 50.4 112.9 66.2 58.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 34.0 34.9 49.4 121.2 71.0 63.8 16.0 23.2 31.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 39.9 44.2 49.6 109.4 63.6 57.0 24.3 34.3 46.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 45.5 46.6 51.4 104.3 59.6 54.6 29.3 39.8 51.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 46.6 46.9 52.2 102.8 58.2 53.8 30.5 41.0 52.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 38.1 38.7 54.4 103.4 58.9 53.9 24.5 33.4 43.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 33.1 34.5 50.0 123.9 72.5 64.4 16.0 22.7 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 67.6 66.3 57.2 99.3 55.0 51.8 50.5 62.5 75.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 38.7 37.9 52.4 101.8 57.1 52.6 25.3 33.8 43.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 47.2 45.4 56.1 99.6 54.9 51.4 32.3 42.2 53.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 40.6 38.6 49.5 98.9 54.8 51.2 26.2 35.6 46.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 40.5 38.5 50.3 99.0 55.0 51.4 23.9 34.9 48.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 29.6 45.6 53.6 102.3 58.0 53.4 29.8 40.0 51.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 48.4 50.4 57.7 105.9 60.8 55.8 34.6 43.8 54.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 36.6 36.6 46.8 100.6 57.3 52.4 18.6 30.4 44.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 37.3 36.8 50.7 101.8 57.5 52.9 23.5 32.4 42.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 37.3 39.3 50.0 128.0 74.3 66.9 17.4 24.7 33.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 43.4 43.1 62.9 102.0 57.1 53.0 28.8 38.5 49.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 37.4 36.9 49.3 116.7 68.4 61.9 19.1 26.7 35.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 45.8 48.7 78.2 105.4 60.5 56.6 30.6 41.2 53.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 25.2 40.7 50.3 104.3 59.4 53.8 25.3 34.6 45.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 36.8 38.1 51.1 124.8 72.6 65.7 17.2 24.7 33.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 29.3 33.3 50.8 110.9 64.9 59.0 18.9 25.9 33.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 48.2 48.4 55.9 103.0 58.1 53.2 34.4 43.7 53.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 41.2 45.9 55.9 110.1 64.2 58.3 24.6 35.1 47.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 36.4 37.3 54.1 103.7 59.3 54.7 22.3 31.5 42.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 42.2 40.3 55.1 114.3 67.2 60.0 20.8 29.4 39.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 36.8 36.2 48.2 100.7 57.0 52.0 19.5 30.6 44.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 69.0 70.5 69.4 103.8 58.9 54.4 49.6 63.0 77.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 34.9 35.1 49.4 118.4 69.5 62.0 16.7 24.1 32.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------