***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 2.0 4.6 1.7 4.7 89.2 84.8 -4.2 -1.9 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 0.7 2.3 0.9 3.7 84.0 79.7 -4.5 -2.4 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 3.2 4.9 1.2 4.1 86.4 82.2 -1.6 0.2 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 -2.2 -0.6 -1.6 3.9 85.3 81.9 -7.2 -5.3 -3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 0.3 2.1 -0.4 4.4 87.7 84.0 -4.5 -2.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 -0.8 1.6 -2.3 4.9 91.1 87.4 -5.4 -3.7 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 0.9 2.5 1.0 3.8 84.4 80.1 -4.3 -2.3 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 -5.4 -4.3 -2.7 4.0 85.9 82.6 -9.1 -7.7 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 1.3 2.8 -0.6 4.1 86.3 82.6 -3.5 -1.7 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 0.6 1.6 -2.3 3.7 84.2 81.0 -3.6 -2.0 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 0.4 1.9 -1.2 4.3 86.7 83.4 -4.3 -2.5 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 -0.7 0.7 -1.7 4.4 86.7 83.5 -5.0 -3.4 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 0.0 1.4 -1.9 4.2 85.6 82.9 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 1.2 1.5 -1.9 2.8 76.6 74.2 -2.8 -1.2 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 1.0 3.1 -0.2 4.2 88.7 85.0 -4.2 -2.3 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 1.0 2.5 -1.5 4.4 87.1 83.9 -3.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 0.1 1.1 0.5 3.2 80.5 76.5 -4.2 -2.4 -0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 -2.1 -1.6 -3.3 3.0 78.3 75.9 -5.7 -4.2 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 0.8 2.4 0.7 3.7 84.1 79.7 -4.4 -2.3 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 -4.2 -2.9 -3.7 3.7 83.8 80.6 -9.5 -7.5 -5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 1.2 2.9 0.7 4.3 87.0 83.2 -3.7 -1.9 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 0.1 1.0 0.2 3.0 79.0 75.3 -4.5 -2.5 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 0.2 1.6 0.3 3.6 83.9 79.6 -4.2 -2.4 -0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 0.2 0.9 -1.6 3.1 79.7 76.9 -3.9 -2.2 -0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 0.7 2.8 0.8 4.8 89.7 85.3 -4.0 -2.2 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 -0.2 1.7 -1.5 4.9 89.7 86.2 -4.4 -2.8 -1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 1.9 4.5 1.4 4.8 89.1 84.7 -4.3 -2.0 0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 -0.2 1.2 -1.3 3.9 84.9 81.9 -5.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 -1.6 -0.8 -3.7 3.4 81.4 78.5 -5.7 -4.1 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 1.4 3.4 1.2 4.1 86.2 81.8 -4.2 -2.0 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------