***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 6.4 7.1 6.8 2.9 76.9 74.7 1.7 3.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 46 54 100 6.0 5.6 5.4 1.2 62.6 61.3 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.6 6.5 2.2 70.3 68.6 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 -0.6 0.4 2.6 1.4 62.2 61.7 -2.7 -0.9 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 7.5 8.2 6.1 3.3 79.2 77.2 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 6.8 8.7 5.6 4.1 88.1 85.7 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 6.0 6.4 6.1 2.1 71.8 69.6 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 0.3 0.4 4.1 2.1 70.0 69.2 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 8.0 8.4 6.4 2.7 74.4 72.8 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.3 5.0 2.3 70.2 69.3 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 7.7 8.3 6.4 3.1 77.3 75.5 3.1 5.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 7.8 8.1 5.2 2.7 75.2 73.9 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 7.9 8.9 6.9 3.7 82.7 80.6 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 6.4 7.6 5.4 1.5 62.7 62.0 3.8 6.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 5.0 5.8 4.2 1.2 61.2 60.6 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 8.3 9.5 6.4 3.8 83.0 80.9 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 4.4 5.1 5.0 1.0 61.2 59.9 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 6.1 5.9 4.6 2.3 70.6 69.9 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 4.8 5.5 5.2 1.1 60.4 59.4 2.2 4.3 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 4.0 3.9 3.2 2.4 72.6 71.9 -0.1 1.6 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 7.7 8.4 7.3 3.0 77.0 75.0 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 5.2 5.3 4.6 0.5 55.3 54.6 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 5.1 5.8 5.2 1.1 60.3 59.3 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 7.9 7.8 6.0 2.1 68.4 67.3 3.6 5.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 6.1 6.9 6.2 3.1 79.0 77.1 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 7.2 8.2 5.1 3.2 83.0 81.1 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 7.0 8.3 7.0 3.4 82.2 79.8 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 5.8 6.8 3.6 1.4 62.1 61.4 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 4.5 4.4 4.3 2.5 72.9 72.0 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 6.1 6.1 5.9 1.8 68.0 66.2 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------