***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9.6 10.3 7.6 2.9 75.3 72.7 3.7 6.3 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 8.8 9.0 7.4 2.5 71.5 69.1 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.2 7.7 2.5 71.2 68.9 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 1.6 2.7 3.4 1.4 62.9 62.2 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 9.7 10.0 5.9 2.4 71.6 69.7 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 8.9 9.7 5.5 3.3 78.4 75.2 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 8.6 9.3 7.7 2.8 75.0 72.1 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 0.6 0.4 4.4 1.6 65.1 63.8 -2.3 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 10.4 10.5 6.7 2.3 70.3 68.3 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 9.6 9.2 5.2 1.6 64.5 63.3 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 10.1 10.4 6.4 2.6 72.6 70.3 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 9.6 9.9 5.7 2.4 71.8 69.5 5.1 7.2 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 10.2 11.0 6.7 3.4 78.8 75.5 4.9 7.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.5 6.1 1.3 61.2 59.9 5.5 7.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 9.0 9.0 5.5 2.3 70.7 69.2 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 10.6 11.3 6.3 3.2 77.2 74.3 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 8.1 8.2 7.1 2.2 70.4 67.7 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.7 4.5 1.2 60.4 59.7 4.6 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 9.3 9.2 7.4 2.3 69.6 67.4 3.7 6.2 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 5.0 4.8 3.1 1.5 63.7 62.7 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 10.1 10.2 7.4 2.5 71.5 69.4 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 9.0 8.6 6.8 1.8 66.1 64.2 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 9.5 9.0 7.3 2.1 67.6 65.6 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 10.5 9.7 6.3 1.5 63.1 61.8 5.6 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 8.6 9.0 6.2 2.6 73.8 71.6 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 9.3 10.0 5.7 3.2 79.9 76.9 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 9.5 10.3 7.2 3.0 76.7 73.9 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 9.9 9.7 4.6 1.9 66.5 65.3 4.9 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.9 4.1 1.3 61.6 60.8 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 8.9 9.3 7.5 2.7 73.1 70.7 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------