***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.1 6.3 0.3 52.6 51.8 3.7 5.8 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.4 6.4 0.3 52.6 52.1 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.1 6.8 0.3 52.8 52.0 3.4 5.7 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -1.1 3.1 -0.3 47.7 47.9 -3.0 -0.8 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.1 4.8 0.3 52.4 51.6 3.5 5.7 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.2 4.1 0.9 57.9 55.8 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.2 6.5 0.4 53.7 52.8 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.6 -2.0 4.1 0.3 53.4 52.4 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.3 5.6 0.4 53.2 52.2 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.2 4.8 0.3 53.1 52.2 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.7 5.0 0.6 55.6 54.0 3.8 6.0 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.4 5.0 0.7 57.0 55.4 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.9 7.5 4.8 1.1 60.8 58.6 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.5 6.1 0.5 54.4 53.3 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.9 3.7 -0.3 47.6 47.9 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.5 4.9 0.8 57.8 55.8 4.4 6.5 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.0 6.3 0.2 51.9 51.5 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.9 4.9 0.5 54.1 53.1 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.4 6.6 0.3 52.4 51.9 2.8 5.1 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.8 2.5 2.6 0.3 53.0 52.6 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.1 6.1 0.2 52.0 51.4 3.5 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.3 6.3 0.1 50.6 50.6 2.9 5.2 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.7 6.9 0.4 53.2 52.3 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.5 6.0 0.5 54.1 53.0 3.6 5.9 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.1 4.5 0.0 50.2 49.8 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.7 7.2 4.5 1.0 60.3 58.5 4.0 6.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.9 5.7 0.3 52.5 51.7 3.4 5.6 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.5 3.5 -0.1 48.8 48.8 3.3 5.7 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.4 4.2 0.5 54.7 53.9 -0.4 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.3 6.4 0.3 53.0 52.3 2.7 4.9 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------