***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.5 8.0 0.8 57.7 57.1 5.4 7.5 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.4 8.0 0.7 56.5 56.7 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.3 8.5 0.8 57.3 56.8 5.1 7.3 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.4 1.7 5.5 1.0 58.9 57.5 -1.8 0.5 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.7 6.7 1.1 59.6 58.0 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.1 8.4 5.6 1.5 63.3 60.9 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.9 7.9 0.6 56.1 56.3 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.0 -1.0 5.4 0.7 57.0 56.2 -4.0 -1.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.9 7.4 1.0 59.0 57.6 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.6 6.2 0.8 56.9 56.1 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.1 6.7 1.1 60.2 58.7 5.5 7.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.7 6.4 1.1 60.6 59.0 5.0 7.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 10.3 9.4 6.0 1.3 62.7 60.6 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.8 7.4 0.7 56.0 55.1 5.6 8.0 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.6 6.1 1.0 58.9 57.9 4.5 6.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.7 6.4 1.3 62.0 60.0 5.7 8.0 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.7 7.8 0.6 55.6 55.7 4.0 6.1 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.9 6.1 0.6 55.2 54.6 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.5 8.2 0.8 56.8 56.8 4.2 6.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.7 3.4 0.3 53.3 53.3 1.1 3.3 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.7 8.0 0.9 58.3 57.3 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.9 7.3 7.9 0.6 55.6 55.6 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.9 8.5 0.8 57.1 56.7 4.6 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.5 7.4 0.7 56.3 55.4 5.5 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.6 6.4 0.9 58.0 57.1 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 9.6 9.1 5.7 1.3 63.6 61.4 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.8 7.4 0.8 57.6 56.9 4.6 6.8 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.5 5.9 1.1 59.8 58.3 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.0 5.2 0.5 54.4 54.0 1.1 3.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.2 8.0 0.7 56.9 57.0 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------