***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 4.0 5.3 12.2 101.8 64.4 57.2 1.5 3.2 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 3.7 5.8 11.8 120.7 70.2 63.2 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.4 7.5 11.7 97.8 62.6 55.2 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.0 9.2 12.2 83.6 57.4 51.5 4.1 7.4 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.0 11.5 80.6 55.9 49.4 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 7.9 8.9 11.0 87.6 58.7 53.2 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 4.1 6.5 11.6 120.8 70.3 62.6 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 13.7 19.7 19.6 121.8 68.5 61.3 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.7 6.5 11.2 81.9 56.3 50.2 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.9 9.5 13.7 89.5 59.1 52.3 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.3 11.6 82.9 57.1 50.0 3.9 6.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 7.2 10.3 16.2 114.8 67.5 60.6 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 8.3 8.8 12.2 85.3 57.8 51.9 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 7.6 8.6 14.1 91.8 60.1 51.8 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.7 8.2 12.6 96.2 63.0 57.1 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.1 7.5 11.9 86.6 58.7 52.1 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 3.8 6.8 12.7 136.6 74.4 66.5 1.7 3.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 8.1 9.1 16.1 99.0 62.1 54.4 4.1 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 4.0 5.9 11.9 114.1 68.2 61.2 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 11.6 13.8 33.2 158.1 77.4 69.4 3.9 6.7 10.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.8 7.2 11.8 87.4 58.7 53.1 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 3.8 7.0 13.6 137.2 74.5 66.1 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 3.8 5.3 12.3 105.7 65.3 57.9 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 8.4 8.7 12.6 87.0 58.0 50.6 3.8 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 7.0 8.1 13.2 91.5 60.7 55.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 7.6 12.1 17.2 122.5 70.6 65.0 3.3 6.4 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 5.2 6.5 12.5 99.8 63.7 57.1 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.8 6.7 10.7 82.2 57.3 50.9 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.1 16.4 21.3 120.4 68.5 59.8 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 3.9 5.8 11.8 115.4 68.7 61.3 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------