***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.6 7.6 12.0 118.0 69.3 58.2 2.3 4.3 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.1 9.6 9.9 112.1 67.7 57.5 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.9 9.1 10.4 102.3 63.9 54.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 13.1 15.3 16.4 143.4 76.0 67.6 3.5 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 12.7 12.4 14.0 117.7 69.0 60.4 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 10.1 11.6 15.1 140.0 75.2 64.8 3.7 6.1 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.6 9.2 10.2 117.9 69.4 57.9 2.7 4.9 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.5 15.3 14.7 116.8 68.6 59.5 5.4 9.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.2 8.6 12.6 106.4 65.4 56.0 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.8 12.0 13.4 108.2 65.9 56.9 4.4 7.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.9 13.4 112.2 66.9 57.6 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 9.1 9.7 14.6 126.7 71.6 62.2 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 11.0 11.4 14.9 126.9 71.9 62.0 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.6 11.9 94.0 60.0 53.6 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.1 17.3 16.3 161.1 79.4 68.0 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 9.7 10.5 15.1 133.6 73.4 64.4 3.2 5.6 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.0 11.0 10.2 116.6 69.1 57.7 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.7 9.1 13.5 103.3 63.8 55.9 3.9 6.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.6 10.0 10.3 110.9 67.2 58.2 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.3 8.8 18.2 105.5 64.7 56.9 3.6 6.1 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.4 12.1 107.5 65.8 56.3 2.9 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.8 10.6 10.7 115.6 68.7 58.3 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.8 10.9 105.7 65.0 57.8 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.8 11.0 12.0 98.2 61.9 54.7 4.6 7.9 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 10.7 11.1 14.7 125.8 71.5 61.0 3.2 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 9.1 10.3 16.2 141.8 75.7 67.5 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 11.7 12.1 13.3 124.2 71.1 60.0 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.4 13.3 16.7 157.8 78.9 69.8 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 10.8 12.6 14.3 100.1 62.5 54.7 5.3 8.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.7 10.2 113.1 67.9 57.5 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------