***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.4 11.2 99.1 62.6 50.6 2.9 6.0 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.9 8.7 11.3 119.2 69.6 56.4 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.7 12.0 11.7 105.2 64.7 52.1 3.0 6.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.6 15.5 14.9 113.5 67.8 55.2 4.9 9.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.5 13.2 13.0 101.9 63.3 53.8 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.9 12.2 97.8 61.7 53.7 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.8 7.1 11.0 118.3 69.4 55.7 1.6 3.4 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.5 19.9 13.8 99.1 61.7 53.2 9.9 15.2 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.1 10.3 12.9 97.2 61.3 52.2 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.9 13.4 95.8 60.3 52.0 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.5 12.1 95.9 60.7 52.6 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.3 13.5 12.3 97.8 61.5 53.6 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.6 13.6 12.3 97.2 61.4 54.6 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.2 13.8 13.8 100.4 62.5 51.6 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.1 14.1 16.2 124.9 71.7 54.8 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.1 11.8 95.4 60.7 53.3 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.3 7.7 11.0 122.3 70.6 56.9 2.0 4.0 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.6 13.4 91.3 58.2 49.8 4.9 9.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.5 10.9 11.6 117.9 69.2 56.1 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 13.9 18.6 102.7 63.0 54.3 5.3 9.5 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.3 11.1 12.1 97.3 61.5 51.3 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.4 9.1 12.0 126.1 71.7 58.5 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.6 10.1 12.3 113.8 67.7 54.5 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.0 12.6 95.9 60.4 50.2 4.7 8.7 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.5 12.9 99.1 62.4 51.1 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.7 11.1 13.8 109.3 66.1 57.4 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.1 11.6 97.8 62.0 50.3 2.4 5.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.6 13.2 14.3 113.0 67.7 54.4 3.3 7.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.6 20.0 14.5 92.4 58.7 50.1 9.5 15.8 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.8 11.4 114.7 68.3 55.0 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------