***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.6 10.6 89.6 58.8 47.7 3.0 5.2 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.1 6.5 10.4 103.6 64.4 50.7 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.1 10.2 86.0 56.8 46.6 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.0 10.5 81.9 54.7 45.3 4.1 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.2 7.6 10.4 79.6 53.6 44.9 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.3 10.2 80.2 53.1 46.6 3.2 5.7 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.5 7.5 10.6 108.6 65.9 50.7 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.0 12.3 84.8 55.6 46.9 7.3 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.9 6.3 11.0 78.7 53.0 44.7 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.4 12.0 81.4 54.1 46.0 3.3 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.8 10.5 82.0 54.7 46.3 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.1 10.8 84.5 55.4 46.9 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.3 10.7 80.1 53.1 45.7 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.3 12.3 81.6 54.0 45.8 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.2 10.6 89.0 59.3 47.6 2.2 5.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.5 10.0 79.1 52.9 45.3 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.5 8.3 10.4 108.0 65.9 51.7 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.3 13.0 82.4 54.5 46.0 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.5 10.1 96.5 61.5 49.6 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.6 16.8 85.7 56.4 46.5 5.1 9.5 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.3 10.3 78.8 53.6 44.6 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.5 7.5 10.5 101.2 63.4 51.3 2.2 4.7 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.4 10.1 86.5 57.1 47.2 2.6 4.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.4 9.9 11.7 81.5 54.4 45.7 5.3 8.9 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.3 11.2 84.1 56.3 46.2 2.3 5.0 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.7 11.3 85.7 55.7 47.0 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.4 11.3 90.8 59.1 47.8 3.0 5.0 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.3 6.8 9.9 81.5 54.9 45.7 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.0 15.3 14.2 83.4 55.1 45.8 7.3 13.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.9 10.6 101.2 63.2 49.8 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------