***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 28.0 29.6 46.0 101.6 58.8 55.7 17.5 25.0 33.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 33.5 31.7 43.4 113.9 66.3 62.1 16.0 23.2 31.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 38.5 38.3 44.0 97.5 55.8 53.3 24.3 34.3 46.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 43.6 46.9 53.9 103.9 60.2 57.5 29.3 39.8 51.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 44.9 43.0 49.0 94.0 52.8 50.9 30.5 41.0 52.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 36.9 37.4 48.6 100.0 56.8 53.7 24.5 33.4 43.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 32.2 31.4 43.3 116.3 67.6 62.7 16.0 22.7 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 66.9 70.3 60.5 105.8 60.2 56.6 50.5 62.5 75.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 36.9 33.6 47.7 90.4 49.6 48.0 25.3 33.8 43.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 46.1 43.0 52.5 93.1 51.2 48.8 32.3 42.2 53.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 39.5 36.4 47.6 92.7 51.2 49.2 26.2 35.6 46.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 39.4 43.2 53.9 105.7 60.7 57.5 23.9 34.9 48.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 44.5 42.7 50.1 96.2 53.8 51.5 29.8 40.0 51.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 47.6 43.8 52.1 91.7 50.1 47.2 34.6 43.8 54.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 35.4 46.6 55.6 116.1 67.3 62.9 18.6 30.4 44.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 35.9 35.3 48.8 97.5 55.0 52.6 23.5 32.4 42.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 36.6 35.9 44.3 120.9 69.9 65.0 17.4 24.7 33.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 42.5 39.4 56.0 93.9 51.5 48.3 28.8 38.5 49.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 30.0 33.9 43.9 109.7 63.8 60.1 19.1 26.7 35.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 45.6 52.5 86.8 113.8 65.1 59.5 30.6 41.2 53.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 38.4 35.7 46.2 92.2 51.6 49.7 25.3 34.6 45.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 35.7 35.7 46.8 119.8 69.3 64.9 17.2 24.7 33.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 28.5 30.3 45.5 102.6 59.3 56.0 18.9 25.9 33.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 47.2 43.2 48.8 90.2 49.2 46.8 34.4 43.7 53.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 39.4 40.1 52.0 99.2 57.0 54.2 24.6 35.1 47.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 34.1 42.6 58.5 114.1 66.5 62.8 22.3 31.5 42.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 32.7 34.8 48.7 102.4 59.2 56.0 20.8 29.4 39.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 35.1 40.6 51.6 106.7 61.8 58.5 19.5 30.6 44.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 69.0 67.6 64.3 99.3 55.5 50.8 49.6 63.0 77.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 27.3 31.9 44.0 111.0 64.6 60.8 16.7 24.1 32.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------