***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.6 1.8 5.8 91.0 89.6 -5.2 -3.2 -1.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.8 1.9 5.5 91.8 90.6 -5.7 -3.6 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 1.8 4.0 2.0 5.7 91.3 89.9 -2.6 -1.0 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -3.9 -1.5 -0.2 6.0 92.1 91.3 -8.5 -6.8 -5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.7 1.2 0.2 5.6 89.9 88.6 -5.1 -3.5 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -2.0 0.3 -2.5 5.4 92.0 90.8 -6.3 -4.7 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.0 2.7 2.0 5.6 92.0 90.7 -5.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 -5.6 -4.0 -2.5 5.2 88.0 86.5 -10.2 -8.5 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.5 -0.1 5.7 90.3 89.3 -4.2 -2.5 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 -0.5 1.0 -1.8 5.3 88.3 86.9 -4.6 -3.1 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 -0.7 1.1 -0.7 5.4 89.1 87.8 -5.1 -3.5 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 -1.6 -0.1 -1.4 5.4 88.6 87.2 -5.6 -4.1 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -0.9 1.0 -1.2 5.4 90.5 89.3 -5.3 -3.7 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.5 -0.1 5.8 90.2 89.0 -3.7 -2.2 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.6 1.0 6.0 93.2 92.6 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 -0.2 1.5 -1.1 5.5 90.0 88.8 -4.1 -2.7 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 -0.2 2.4 2.0 5.5 92.0 90.8 -5.2 -3.4 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 -2.3 -0.6 -1.8 5.5 89.0 87.6 -6.7 -5.1 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.8 1.7 5.5 91.9 90.6 -5.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 -5.4 -3.7 -3.0 5.3 87.9 86.1 -10.2 -8.5 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.0 1.4 5.9 90.6 89.4 -4.7 -3.0 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.4 1.8 5.3 91.2 90.1 -5.5 -3.5 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 -0.2 2.3 1.3 5.6 92.2 91.0 -5.0 -3.3 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 -0.6 1.5 0.1 5.9 91.2 90.1 -4.9 -3.3 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 -0.5 1.9 1.4 6.0 91.6 90.4 -5.1 -3.4 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -1.2 0.7 -1.3 5.4 90.8 89.3 -5.1 -3.7 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 0.4 3.0 1.7 6.0 90.9 89.6 -5.1 -3.1 -1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -1.5 0.5 0.2 6.0 91.2 90.5 -5.5 -4.0 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 -2.6 -0.7 -2.7 5.6 89.6 88.1 -7.4 -5.6 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 0.3 2.9 1.9 5.6 91.6 90.3 -5.0 -3.1 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------