***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 -3.7 -2.5 -2.9 -0.9 41.2 44.5 -3.3 -1.6 -0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -5.6 -4.3 -2.8 -1.0 40.4 44.2 -5.3 -3.1 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 -3.1 -1.9 -2.9 -0.9 40.7 44.3 -2.8 -0.9 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -9.8 -8.1 -6.0 -0.9 41.3 44.1 -9.2 -7.1 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 -5.9 -4.7 -5.8 -1.3 38.0 42.7 -5.3 -3.3 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -6.6 -5.5 -8.0 -1.4 36.0 41.5 -5.8 -4.0 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -5.2 -3.9 -2.9 -1.1 39.5 43.6 -4.7 -2.7 -0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -12.2 -11.2 -7.7 -1.6 34.4 40.2 -11.4 -9.3 -7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -5.3 -4.3 -5.5 -1.5 35.8 41.6 -4.6 -2.6 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 -5.1 -4.4 -7.1 -1.7 33.4 39.9 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 -5.2 -4.1 -6.7 -1.4 37.3 42.4 -4.6 -2.8 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 -6.4 -5.4 -7.3 -1.5 36.1 41.6 -5.7 -3.9 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 -5.8 -5.0 -7.7 -1.8 33.2 40.3 -5.0 -3.2 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -4.7 -4.3 -5.8 -2.0 31.3 38.5 -4.1 -2.3 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -4.5 -2.8 -4.7 -0.7 43.4 45.5 -4.0 -2.1 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 -4.5 -3.5 -7.2 -1.4 36.6 42.1 -3.9 -2.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -4.3 -2.9 -1.2 38.2 42.8 -4.9 -2.9 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 -7.1 -6.6 -7.9 -2.0 31.1 38.7 -6.4 -4.6 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 -2.1 -4.2 -2.9 -0.9 40.9 44.3 -5.2 -3.1 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -10.7 -10.0 -8.7 -1.7 32.5 39.4 -9.9 -7.8 -5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -5.5 -4.1 -3.9 -1.1 39.0 43.2 -4.9 -2.8 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -5.5 -4.5 -3.1 -1.2 38.5 42.8 -5.2 -3.2 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 -5.3 -4.2 -3.3 -1.1 39.5 43.2 -4.9 -3.0 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -5.6 -5.0 -6.0 -1.8 32.8 39.6 -5.0 -3.1 -1.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -5.2 -3.8 -4.4 -0.9 41.3 44.3 -4.8 -2.9 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 -5.1 -4.0 -7.3 -1.2 38.6 43.2 -4.6 -2.9 -1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -5.3 -3.9 -3.6 -1.1 39.7 43.6 -4.8 -2.6 -0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -6.1 -4.8 -5.9 -1.1 39.7 43.1 -5.6 -3.7 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -8.6 -8.1 -8.2 -2.0 30.9 38.3 -7.8 -5.8 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -5.0 -3.7 -2.8 -0.9 41.0 44.6 -4.7 -2.6 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------