***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.3 4.5 -0.2 47.8 48.0 4.1 6.6 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.1 5.7 4.6 -0.5 45.9 46.6 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.6 4.6 -0.7 43.9 44.9 5.1 7.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -1.3 0.4 1.3 -0.7 44.1 44.5 -1.0 1.2 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.3 2.7 -0.9 42.3 43.3 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.2 5.5 1.5 -0.8 42.2 44.1 4.5 6.4 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.5 4.6 -0.3 47.4 47.9 3.5 5.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -2.4 -1.9 1.3 -1.6 35.6 39.0 -2.1 -0.7 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.9 3.5 -1.0 41.6 42.9 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 5.8 2.1 -1.6 36.7 39.4 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.9 6.3 2.7 -1.1 40.7 42.1 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.0 2.1 -1.3 38.6 41.2 5.3 7.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.5 2.6 -0.7 43.5 45.0 5.1 7.3 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.5 5.9 3.2 -1.9 35.3 38.0 5.6 8.0 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.3 3.2 0.1 50.8 50.0 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.7 6.9 2.4 -0.8 42.9 43.9 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.7 5.3 4.4 -0.6 44.8 45.7 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.3 5.1 1.7 -1.9 34.7 38.2 4.9 6.9 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 5.7 4.6 -0.6 45.0 45.8 4.0 6.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 1.0 1.8 0.2 -1.7 35.1 39.4 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.7 4.2 -0.8 43.0 44.0 5.4 7.6 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.7 4.4 -0.8 42.8 44.0 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.0 5.9 4.6 -0.8 43.4 44.5 4.4 6.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.1 6.3 3.3 -1.6 36.6 39.2 5.8 8.1 10.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.9 3.2 -0.4 46.6 46.8 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.6 2.2 -0.3 46.7 48.2 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.5 4.1 -0.2 47.8 48.1 4.7 6.8 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.5 2.1 -0.6 44.6 45.0 4.8 7.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 1.2 2.0 1.2 -1.8 34.8 38.6 1.8 3.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.1 5.8 4.6 -0.4 46.6 47.2 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------