***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.3 4.7 5.3 -0.9 41.0 43.2 3.7 5.8 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.8 3.8 5.4 -1.0 41.0 43.6 2.8 4.9 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.0 5.4 -1.3 38.0 40.9 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -3.8 -2.6 2.2 -1.4 37.2 39.7 -3.1 -1.0 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.7 3.3 -1.5 35.5 38.5 3.3 5.5 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.3 2.2 -1.4 36.0 39.0 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.4 3.6 5.6 -0.8 42.6 45.0 2.3 4.5 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -4.8 -4.2 2.7 -1.5 34.6 38.1 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.6 3.6 3.9 -1.7 34.5 37.7 3.4 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.6 3.2 -1.7 33.9 37.4 3.5 5.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.8 3.2 -1.6 34.6 38.0 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.5 3.2 -1.4 35.3 38.9 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.6 3.0 -1.0 39.1 41.7 3.8 5.9 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 2.7 3.5 4.2 -1.9 32.7 36.4 3.6 5.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.7 2.9 -1.3 38.5 40.9 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.5 3.0 -1.4 36.2 39.3 4.1 6.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.4 3.5 5.5 -0.9 40.7 43.4 2.5 4.6 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.3 3.3 -1.6 34.7 38.1 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.0 3.5 5.4 -1.1 39.4 42.3 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -0.5 0.7 1.8 -1.0 39.0 41.4 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.7 3.8 4.7 -1.4 36.5 39.4 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.0 3.5 5.4 -1.2 37.7 41.0 2.9 5.0 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.3 5.4 -1.4 36.7 40.0 2.8 5.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.6 4.2 -1.7 33.8 37.3 3.4 5.7 7.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.7 3.6 -1.0 40.0 42.0 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.1 4.8 3.2 -0.6 43.0 44.6 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.3 4.8 -0.8 41.8 43.7 3.1 5.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.5 3.7 2.4 -1.5 35.8 38.8 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -1.5 -0.2 2.9 -1.3 36.9 39.8 -0.7 1.5 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.7 3.6 5.4 -0.9 41.1 43.7 2.5 4.8 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------