***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.2 6.8 6.2 -0.8 42.1 44.2 5.6 7.8 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.7 5.9 6.3 -0.8 42.9 45.7 4.5 6.8 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.7 6.5 6.6 -0.9 41.7 43.9 5.2 7.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -2.4 -0.7 3.1 -1.3 38.3 40.5 -1.5 0.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.2 6.1 4.4 -1.2 38.9 40.9 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.6 5.7 3.2 -0.9 41.3 42.1 4.5 6.8 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.3 5.5 6.4 -0.7 43.3 45.9 4.1 6.4 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -4.2 -2.8 3.6 -1.0 39.7 40.9 -3.6 -1.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.7 6.6 5.1 -1.2 39.4 41.1 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.0 6.7 4.2 -1.1 39.6 41.0 5.8 8.1 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.8 6.6 4.3 -1.2 39.0 40.8 5.7 8.1 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.6 6.3 4.3 -1.0 40.0 41.3 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.6 7.1 4.0 -0.7 43.0 43.4 5.7 8.0 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.1 6.9 5.5 -1.1 40.2 41.9 5.8 8.2 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.4 3.7 -1.3 38.4 41.0 4.7 6.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 5.0 7.0 4.0 -1.0 40.2 41.6 6.0 8.3 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.2 5.4 6.4 -0.7 42.9 45.5 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 6.4 4.4 -1.0 40.9 42.1 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 5.8 6.5 -0.8 42.7 45.4 4.4 6.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.7 2.4 -0.7 42.5 43.2 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.6 6.6 5.8 -1.0 40.4 42.2 5.6 7.9 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.9 5.7 6.4 -0.9 41.8 44.6 4.4 6.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.2 6.7 -0.8 42.3 44.6 4.8 7.2 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.9 6.7 5.5 -1.0 40.7 42.2 5.7 8.0 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.7 5.7 4.4 -0.9 41.2 42.8 4.6 6.8 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.8 7.1 4.1 -0.4 45.3 44.8 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.2 5.6 -0.8 42.4 44.1 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.7 3.3 -1.4 37.5 40.0 5.1 7.5 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 1.1 2.7 3.8 -0.9 41.8 42.9 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.5 5.7 6.3 -0.8 42.8 45.4 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------