***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.5 7.0 6.2 0.8 59.8 57.7 4.4 6.0 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.3 6.3 0.6 57.5 56.3 3.9 5.6 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.1 6.5 0.6 57.1 55.5 4.8 6.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.6 3.3 0.6 56.7 54.8 -1.5 0.0 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.8 6.8 4.5 0.5 55.8 53.8 4.8 6.3 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.0 3.1 0.4 55.3 53.0 4.2 5.5 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.0 6.3 0.7 58.6 57.3 3.5 5.2 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -1.5 3.5 0.2 52.0 50.7 -2.8 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.4 5.4 0.5 56.2 54.1 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.9 4.3 0.2 52.7 51.2 5.2 6.6 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.2 4.7 0.5 55.7 53.6 5.1 6.7 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.9 6.7 4.2 0.4 54.4 52.7 5.0 6.4 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 7.0 7.3 4.3 0.7 58.7 55.8 5.2 6.6 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.2 5.6 0.1 51.7 50.6 5.4 7.1 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.7 4.6 0.9 60.4 58.2 4.2 5.7 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.5 4.2 0.6 56.8 54.4 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 5.7 5.8 6.2 0.5 56.6 55.6 3.7 5.2 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.1 4.1 0.2 52.1 50.7 4.6 6.0 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.4 6.4 0.6 57.1 55.9 3.9 5.7 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.0 2.8 2.3 0.2 52.9 51.6 1.3 2.6 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.2 6.1 0.6 56.9 54.9 5.0 6.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.4 6.3 6.2 0.4 54.6 53.8 4.1 5.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.6 6.5 0.6 56.7 55.2 4.3 6.0 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.2 5.5 0.3 53.0 51.5 5.4 6.9 8.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 5.9 6.3 4.8 0.8 59.5 57.1 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 6.6 7.1 3.9 0.8 61.2 58.1 5.0 6.2 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 6.4 6.8 5.7 0.8 60.0 57.7 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.1 3.8 0.6 56.1 54.4 4.8 6.5 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.0 3.6 0.3 53.2 51.6 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.2 6.3 0.7 58.2 56.8 3.8 5.4 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------