***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 4.8 5.3 13.4 134.2 73.8 64.5 1.3 2.5 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 5.0 6.1 12.6 150.2 77.6 67.4 1.9 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 8.3 8.6 12.3 124.1 70.9 61.6 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.5 11.6 85.7 57.8 52.2 4.0 6.9 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.7 12.6 98.2 62.2 54.8 4.1 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 6.9 8.7 12.9 101.9 64.1 57.5 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 5.9 7.3 12.6 153.2 78.3 67.7 1.9 3.3 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 19.5 19.1 17.0 119.9 69.8 60.9 6.3 11.0 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.9 11.9 107.4 65.4 57.0 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.1 15.0 113.3 67.5 58.2 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.0 8.4 12.9 104.1 64.4 56.8 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.5 9.7 14.6 114.8 68.3 60.5 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.9 9.5 14.5 102.4 63.9 56.9 3.0 6.0 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 11.1 11.5 16.2 127.9 72.1 62.6 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 5.3 6.0 9.5 82.2 59.4 53.1 1.7 4.2 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.9 13.6 103.8 64.4 57.2 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.9 7.5 12.5 156.8 78.9 68.4 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 10.8 10.8 16.7 123.1 70.5 61.0 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 5.4 6.5 12.8 145.3 76.6 66.5 1.7 3.0 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 11.9 13.4 25.4 145.3 76.2 66.7 3.3 6.0 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.6 11.9 109.9 66.4 58.1 2.9 5.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.6 7.2 13.4 156.3 78.9 68.6 1.6 3.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 5.3 6.2 13.5 141.8 75.7 65.4 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 10.9 10.6 14.0 118.0 69.1 59.8 3.7 6.3 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.4 8.5 14.5 113.5 67.6 59.5 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 6.8 9.0 14.2 102.3 64.9 59.2 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 7.0 7.4 14.3 132.3 73.3 64.2 2.3 3.9 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.8 10.5 86.1 59.0 52.9 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.5 19.4 132.5 73.0 63.5 5.9 9.7 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 4.9 5.7 12.8 146.5 76.8 66.7 1.9 3.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------