***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 9.1 13.7 136.1 74.4 57.5 2.4 4.4 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.0 10.0 10.8 121.7 70.2 52.9 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.0 14.4 14.0 144.9 76.6 60.7 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 13.5 19.9 18.8 169.0 81.4 66.5 4.0 7.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.9 18.0 16.7 153.0 78.5 65.1 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 10.5 12.5 16.2 144.2 76.4 65.7 3.6 6.1 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.3 8.7 10.5 120.8 70.0 52.6 2.6 4.8 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 19.1 24.8 18.6 157.4 79.7 67.4 5.5 10.2 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 10.7 13.5 16.3 145.6 77.0 63.7 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 14.7 18.8 17.6 154.1 78.9 66.7 4.5 8.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 12.6 17.3 17.5 158.1 79.7 67.4 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.4 13.8 17.6 158.6 79.9 66.6 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 12.4 15.6 17.9 150.9 78.0 66.1 3.9 6.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.3 18.1 17.6 142.0 76.0 62.1 4.3 8.0 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 13.0 21.3 19.2 185.9 83.5 66.6 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 10.5 13.2 16.9 151.0 78.0 65.3 3.4 5.9 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.4 10.0 10.0 113.8 67.7 50.7 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 11.3 13.7 18.3 147.7 77.5 66.0 3.8 6.5 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.2 12.3 11.7 127.8 72.0 55.1 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 11.8 14.3 22.6 145.9 76.9 66.2 3.4 6.2 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.8 15.5 15.4 142.8 76.3 60.9 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.5 10.7 11.1 121.1 69.9 52.8 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.7 12.7 13.2 134.7 74.0 57.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 14.6 18.7 17.1 148.7 77.7 64.0 4.5 8.2 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 12.3 14.4 16.1 142.0 75.9 60.6 3.6 6.7 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 8.6 11.4 18.2 156.3 79.3 65.9 2.2 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 14.5 14.5 137.2 74.7 58.4 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 10.4 16.0 18.3 172.7 81.7 66.6 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 18.5 23.0 20.2 149.5 78.0 67.0 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.0 10.6 11.6 129.0 72.4 54.9 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------